Market Overview
It was a tale of two markets on Wednesday.
Corn and soybeans spent much of the session modestly lower after improved U.S. crop ratings and favorable weather forecasts weighed on prices. However, both markets recovered significantly from their session lows.
Wheat, meanwhile, staged an impressive reversal, climbing roughly 10 cents as escalating military tensions between Russia and Ukraine renewed concerns over Black Sea grain exports.
🌾 Wheat Markets
Wheat futures erased early losses and finished sharply higher as traders focused on growing risks to Russian export logistics.
Recent developments include:
Russia increasing attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and port facilities.
Two dry bulk carriers reportedly struck while sitting in Ukrainian ports.
Commercial shipping through the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait remaining largely halted.
Russia continuing its wheat harvest while facing logistical challenges.
Although harvest is only beginning and relatively few export vessels are currently loading, markets are becoming increasingly concerned about how Russia will move its large wheat crop if shipping disruptions persist.
Additional concerns include:
Limited diesel fuel supplies within Russia following repeated attacks on refineries.
Greater reliance on truck and rail transportation if Black Sea exports remain restricted.
Wheat Futures
Chicago September Wheat
Up 10½ cents
Closed at $6.45¾
Kansas City September Wheat
Up 10¾ cents
Closed at $6.67¼
Minneapolis September Wheat
Up 5¾ cents
Closed at $6.59
Minneapolis December Wheat
Up 5¼ cents
Closed at $6.79½
Chicago wheat finished within roughly 7 cents of this week’s overnight highs.
🌽 Corn Market
Corn traded modestly lower but recovered nearly all of its early losses.
Support came from:
Brazilian production estimates that were left mostly unchanged, rather than increased as many expected.
Weather forecasts that remain hot for parts of the Western Corn Belt despite improvement later next week.
Expectations that crop ratings in western production areas could deteriorate after this week’s heat.
USDA Crop Ratings
This week’s ratings improved:
Corn: +1%
Soybeans: +1%
Spring Wheat: +1%
However, traders are already looking ahead to next week’s ratings, particularly across
