Market Overview
Grain markets wrapped up the shortened trading week with mixed action as traders headed into the Independence Day holiday weekend.
While U.S. markets will be closed Friday, European markets will continue trading, and electronic trading will remain open for energy, metals, and stock index futures.
Despite some profit-taking ahead of the long weekend, grain markets continue to draw support from Monday’s USDA report and growing production concerns overseas.
🌾 Wheat Market
Wheat rallied early in the session before giving back part of those gains as producers took advantage of the recent rally.
The market continues to react to Monday’s USDA report, which showed the lowest U.S. wheat acreage in 149 years, dating back to government records that began shortly after the Civil War.
European Weather Becoming a Bigger Story
Weather concerns continue to build across Europe:
France remains extremely hot during corn pollination.
Germany is experiencing continued heat and dryness.
Temperatures are expected to return to the 100-degree range next week.
Ukraine remains dry, although not yet experiencing extreme heat.
Current estimates suggest the European corn crop could decline by roughly 10 million metric tons, increasing the likelihood of additional export demand shifting toward the United States.
Wheat Futures
Chicago September
Up ½ cent
Closed at $6.00½
Kansas City September
Up 3¼ cents
Closed at $6.38¼
Minneapolis September
Down 4½ cents
Closed at $6.14
Minneapolis December
Down 5 cents
Closed at $6.36¾
🌽 Corn Market
Corn finished modestly higher after recent USDA data tightened the balance sheet.
The report lowered old-crop ending stocks by 100 million bushels, reflecting stronger feed demand from heavier cattle weights.
Even more noteworthy, USDA indicated only a 39.8% survey response rate, with more than 2 million corn acres still unreported at the time surveys were completed.
Given the excessive moisture across portions of the Eastern Corn Belt, many analysts question whether all intended corn acres were ever planted.
If harvested acreage is reduced in future USDA reports, new-crop ending stocks could tighten considerably.
Some estimates suggest ending stocks could fall below 1.7 billion bushels within the next two months—even assuming trendline yields near 183–184 bushels per acre.
Corn Futures
September Corn
Up 1½ cents
Closed at $4.24¼
December Corn
Up ½ cent
Closed at $4.42¾
🌱 Soybeans
Soybean futures posted only modest gains after earlier strength faded.
August Soybeans
Up 3¾ cents
Closed at $11.37
November Soybeans
Up ½ cent
Closed at $11.49¾
🐄 Cattle Markets
Cattle futures continued their recent slide as traders grew increasingly concerned about post-holiday beef demand.
Seasonally, grilling demand often shifts after the Fourth of July toward lower-priced proteins such as burgers, bratwursts, and chicken, reducing demand for premium beef cuts.
There also continues to be market speculation surrounding the possibility of expanded cattle imports from Mexico, although no official USDA announcements have been made.
Boxed Beef
Choice: Down $3.61
Closed at 387.05
Select: Down $0.49
Closed at 369.20
Live Cattle
August
Down $2.42
Closed at 239.40
Approximately $15 below the cash market.
October
Down $2.17
Closed at 234.55
December
Down $2.15
Closed at 234.42
Feeder Cattle
Feeder cattle continued breaking technical support.
August
Down $3.30
Closed at 360.85
September
Down $3.40
Closed at 358.77
October
Down $3.25
Closed at 356.05
January
Down $3.37
Closed at 346.57
Several feeder cattle contracts now trade roughly $30–35 below the cash index.
🐖 Hogs
Hog futures moved higher.
August Hogs
Up $1.70
Closed at 98.75
October Hogs
Up $0.52
Closed at 82.02
🪙 Metals & Financial Markets
A softer-than-expected jobs report supported precious metals.
Gold
Up $40
Closed at $4,001
Silver
Up $0.50
Closed at 61.01
U.S. Dollar Index
Down 0.50
Closed at 100.66
Bitcoin
Up $1,705
Closed at 61,885
🛢️ Energy Markets
Crude oil remained relatively stable heading into the holiday weekend despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Electronic energy trading will continue while U.S. markets remain closed Friday.
August Crude Oil
Down $0.23
Closed at $68.35
August Gasoline
Down 4 cents
Closed at $2.90½
August Diesel
Down 3 cents
Closed at $3.18½
📌 Bottom Line
Grain markets held onto much of this week’s USDA-driven rally despite holiday profit-taking. The focus is shifting from U.S. weather toward tightening corn stocks, historically low wheat acreage, and mounting crop concerns across Europe. Meanwhile, livestock futures continue to struggle as traders worry about softer seasonal beef demand and widening discounts between futures and the cash market heading into July.
