Market Overview
Today’s USDA June Acreage and Grain Stocks Report—widely considered the biggest and most market-moving report of the year—delivered exactly the kind of volatility traders expected.
On a scale of 1 to 10, today’s report is often considered a 12, and grain markets responded with sharp moves across the board.
The biggest surprise came in the corn stocks data, while wheat received supportive acreage and stocks numbers. Soybean figures were largely in line with expectations.
🌽 Corn Market
The headline surprise was a 100 million bushel reduction in old-crop corn stocks, coming in below both the average trade estimate and USDA’s previous projections.
The lower stocks suggest stronger feed demand than previously estimated, likely driven by heavier cattle feeding programs aimed at maximizing carcass weights.
Corn Acreage
Planted acreage remained unchanged at 95.3 million acres, matching previous estimates.
Harvested acreage was also left largely unchanged.
While acreage wasn’t a surprise, the lower stocks create a much tighter balance sheet moving into the new crop year.
If weather problems develop later this summer, new crop ending stocks could fall toward 1.8 billion bushels or lower, marking a significant shift from the bearish outlook that has dominated the market in recent weeks.
Corn Futures
September Corn
Up 5½ cents
Closed at $4.15¾
December Corn
Up 5 cents
Closed at $4.35
Prices pulled back from their immediate post-report highs but still finished the session higher.
🌱 Soybeans
Soybean acreage and quarterly stocks came in very close to trade expectations.
The market initially rallied on the report before giving back much of its gains once traders realized there were no major surprises.
Soybean Futures
August Soybeans
Up 4¾ cents
Closed at $11.24
November Soybeans
Up 4½ cents
Closed at $11.43½
November futures briefly rallied to $11.56½ immediately after the report before retreating.
