Market Overview
Grain markets kicked off the new month with strong follow-through buying, as traders shifted to a much more bullish outlook.
What was expected to be a brief stretch of heat across the western Corn Belt is now forecast to linger and potentially intensify through mid-July. Combined with mounting crop concerns in Europe, the market has begun repricing weather risk.
The result was a broad-based rally led by soybeans, with corn and wheat also posting impressive gains.
🌎 Global Weather Concerns Build
Weather is becoming the dominant story across multiple growing regions.
United States
Forecasts now call for:
Triple-digit temperatures in parts of South Dakota.
Hot, dry conditions extending across portions of:
Nebraska
North Dakota
Minnesota
Western Iowa
Missouri
The extended heat is expected to coincide with corn pollination, raising concerns that national yields could fall below current expectations if stressful conditions persist.
Europe
Crop conditions continue deteriorating across Europe.
France remains under extreme heat.
Spain continues to struggle with high temperatures.
Germany and Poland are becoming increasingly hot and dry.
Ukraine is also trending drier.
French corn production has become a major concern, with some estimates suggesting losses approaching 50% of the crop, potentially surpassing the damage experienced during the drought of 2022.
As a result, both global corn and wheat supplies are becoming tighter.
🌽 Corn Market
Corn futures extended their rally as traders priced in increasing weather risk.
September Corn
Up 15 cents
Closed at $4.38¼
December Corn
Up 16¼ cents
Closed at $4.57¾
Growing concern over pollination conditions across the western Corn Belt has shifted sentiment sharply higher.
