Market Overview
Grain futures traded mixed, with corn and soybeans posting gains while wheat eased after its recent rally.
Wheat came under pressure as traders monitored developments around the Kerch Bridge and the Sea of Azov, where shipping disruptions have raised concerns. However, with the Russian wheat harvest only beginning, markets believe there is still time for export logistics to normalize before significant grain shipments move through the region.
Meanwhile, corn continues to find support from tightening supply expectations and growing concerns over weather in portions of the Western Corn Belt.
🌽 Corn Market
Corn futures continued to strengthen as traders balanced near-term weather risks with tightening supply fundamentals.
While much of the Eastern Corn Belt remains in good condition, forecasts continue to show:
Hotter and drier weather across portions of:
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota
Western Minnesota
Western Iowa
Pollination will be the key driver over the coming weeks.
Tightening Supply Outlook
The market is increasingly questioning USDA’s balance sheet.
Recent developments include:
Old-crop corn carryout reduced by 125 million bushels.
Strong cattle feeding continues to increase corn usage.
Export demand remains exceptionally strong.
USDA has yet to fully account for export sales, with another 50 million bushels of exports potentially needing to be added in future reports.
If exports increase again, carryout would decline further.
Current USDA projections place new-crop carryout near 1.79 billion bushels, but a modest reduction in yield could quickly push that figure closer to 1.5 billion bushels.
Yield Concerns
USDA currently projects:
183 bushels per acre trendline yield.
However, if western Corn Belt production underperforms because of summer heat, national yields could slip toward 181 bushels per acre, significantly tightening ending stocks.
Corn Futures
December Corn
Up 3¼ cents
Closed at $4.64¼
The overnight high reached:
$4.69½
The market continues to test the 200-day moving average near $4.66½, an important technical resistance level.
