🌱 Soybeans Lead the Charge
Big rally across the soybean complex
July beans up 15¢ → 11.93½
New crop (Nov) up 11¢ → 11.67
Main driver = Soybean Meal Surge
May meal up $9.70/ton → $334
July meal up $9.20/ton → $328.30
Why the spike?
Netherlands rejected Argentine soybean meal cargoes
Issue: HB4 gene contamination concerns
Cargoes rerouted to Southeast Asia at a discount
👉 Global demand shifting quickly to the U.S.
Soybean oil also supportive
Up 30 points with stronger crude oil
🌽 Corn Quietly Climbing
Riding support from strong soybean meal
July corn up 5½¢ → 4.69 (nearly hit 4.70)
December corn up 4¼¢ → 4.88½
📈 “Slow and steady” rally still in play into May
🌾 Wheat: Short Covering + Weather Concerns
Chicago wheat leading gains
July up 12¼¢ → 6.29
Funds covering large short positions
Kansas wheat also higher
Up 6¢ → 6.75¾
Still supported by:
Ongoing dryness in western Kansas
Freeze damage starting to show
🌧️ Weekend rains = minimal relief
📉 Crop ratings expected to drop:
Trade guessing -2 to -3%
Could be worse (closer to -4%)
⚠️ Reminder:
May contracts go deliverable Friday
Be out by Thursday
🌱 Spring Wheat
Slightly higher, less action
July up 2¢ → 6.95¼
🐄 Cattle: Strong Reversal + Seasonal Support
Market bouncing back after last week’s selloff
Cash market remains strong
April cattle up $2.42 → 250.72
June cattle up $3.97 → 249.20
🔥 Key drivers:
Funds stepping back in (buying again)
Strong beef demand heading into May–June (prime season)
Lower overall cattle numbers = support
🥩 Beef prices:
Choice +1.42
Select +1.67 (closing the gap)
🐖 Hogs
Modest bounce
June up 62¢ → 102.52
July up 37¢ → 105.27
🛢️ Energy Markets Driving Support
Crude oil up $2.23 → $96.63
Ongoing tension around Strait of Hormuz
Diesel up 14¢/gallon → strong move
⛽ Higher energy = supportive for:
Soybean oil
Biofuels
Overall ag complex
🪙 Metals Pull Back
Gold down $45
Silver down $1.30
💡 Big Picture Takeaways
Soybean meal disruption = major bullish catalyst
Demand shifting to U.S. = immediate market impact
Wheat supported by weather + short covering
Corn continues a quiet but steady climb
Cattle regaining strength with seasonal demand + tight supply
Thank you for listening and have a profitable day!
