Market Overview
“Let ’er buck” was the phrase of the day as grain markets experienced another volatile session.
Wheat futures pushed to fresh yearly contract highs overnight before collapsing more than 50 cents from their session peaks. The selloff was triggered by reports that Ukraine was exploring a proposal to protect vessels entering the Odesa port.
However, wheat recovered significantly from its lows after it became clear Russia had shown no interest in accepting the proposal.
Soybeans traded higher as forecasts showed heat expanding into the western Midwest during early August, while corn remained slightly lower but recovered from its morning lows.
🌾 Wheat Markets
Kansas City and Chicago wheat reached new contract highs around 3 a.m. before reversing sharply when European markets opened.
The initial pressure followed reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was working on a plan to keep the Odesa port operating by identifying protected vessels entering the region.
That proposal briefly gave traders hope that grain movement through the Black Sea could improve.
However, the optimism faded after:
Russia showed no indication it would support the proposal.
No formal agreement emerged to protect vessels.
Black Sea grain movement remained heavily restricted.
Traders continued to question whether Odesa could remain open.
Wheat futures remained sharply lower on the day but recovered well from their session lows.
Wheat Futures
Kansas City September Wheat
Down 17½ cents
$7.42¼
Approximately 20 cents above the morning low
Spring Wheat Outlook
Minneapolis wheat continued to receive support from disappointing findings on the spring wheat tour.
The tour estimated yield near:
48 bushels per acre
That compares with:
Approximately 49 bushels per acre last year
Roughly 58 bushels per acre currently implied by USDA estimates
Prolonged heat and limited rainfall have damaged yield potential and test weights across northern growing areas.
USDA may eventually need to lower spring wheat production and reduce projected all-wheat ending stocks below 700 million bushels.
🌱 Soybeans
Soybeans traded higher as attention shifted toward early August weather.
Soybeans are often described as an August crop, making the upcoming forecast increasingly important. Current models show heat expanding across the western
