Grain Markets Falter as Dollar Gains Strength

Grain futures, we are lower across the board. Earlier in a session, soybeans were firmer, as we continue to see bean oil continuing to advance as Chinese cooking oil, which has been flooding into our US market, getting our tax credits, getting a little overpriced and at risk of being tariffed, which means it makes our bean oil look very competitive and appealing, and so being all firming on the session, while the soybean market, which, depending on when you check it, a half an hour ago, was higher on the session, now we're slightly lower on the session. Corn and the wheat market pretty much been struggling all day, but nothing too drastic. Just pennies were counting the losses by the US dollar bolted higher overnight, back up to 109 on rumored stories from CNN that President Trump will invoke some kind of emergency tariff actions to spread tariffs to pointed countries. Has not been confirmed by the Trump administration. It came from CNN, nonetheless, it pushed the dollar higher, which then took the grains from a firm overnight trade to a softer trade for our day session rains, it's dry and hot for the next 10 days into Argentina. Again, the 11 to 15 day models are hinting that they think some rain is going to come into Argentina, that in that time window out there that would put us january 20 through the 25th they're hoping some meaningful rain comes. And so the bean trade holding up, trying to see if that is going to develop or not. Presently, we are softer on the day by two and a half cents, two and a quarter cents. On the march, beans at 995 May is off two and a quarter 1005. And a half new crop. November, lower by three and three quarter cents, 10, seven and three quarter sense. Corn off three and three quarter cents on the march, as we head for Friday's a was the crop numbers and final production numbers. We are expecting the corn yield off about a half a bushel. We think carry outs going to be end up, end up, probably in that 167, billion category 1,670,000,000 so it's definitely coming down, tightening up. Course, money. Don't care, as long as big crops continue to come out of Brazil and Argentina, which at this time, you know, it's not, it's nothing more than a flip of a coin. It can be a big crop. And of course, the intention is next year, acreage, you're going to be up at least 3 million acres, possibly on corn. So there's this, you know, it's okay. We might get tight, but we're not going to run out mentality. Corn march off three and a half cents. 454, and a half lower by three and a quarter on the May 462, and a half. New cup, December is down two and a half at 443, and three quarter cents in the wheat, though lower across the board, they're led by Minneapolis march down nine and a quarter 585, and a half may off eight and three quarter cents, 594, it's rumored that in the second quarter, the CME is going to take over and offer a Minneapolis grain contract, which I salute, because the liquidity is so horrible in Minneapolis. So the reality is, the Minneapolis Grain Exchange contract could be heading to the dinosaur bin on the cattle trade. We are Sharpie lower yesterday, mentioned to our clients in our video that it is now open season for black swans. Watch out for black swans. And lo and behold, we get one today. Doesn't matter that the box beef up buck 59 on choice select up 97 cents a 306 and a half, we are down two bucks on live cattle, feeder cattle, and down $4 at one time, the APHIS leg of the Health Division for the government said that they suspect we will start allowing Mexican feeder cattle back in this country the week of January 20, initially, the market opened like it didn't care. But then, as the day wore on, it did. February, cattle off a buck 9193 65 April down 222, 195, 55 June cattle giving up $2.42 at 190, 35 in the feeders. January off $2.87 to 6552 despite the feeder index at 272, plus here this morning, March, feeders down 335, 264, 57 April, feeders giving up 290, at 265, 57 in the hogs. What is this? Actually higher on the day Feb, hogs gaining seven cents. 7925 April, gaining 20 cents at 8592 gold, uncharacteristically higher. With a strong dollar, we're up $8.70 at $2,674 silver march up three cents, $30.71 while Bitcoin down another $1,860 but that's $2,000 off of morning lows, we're presently trading at $94,571 in the crude oil. We are lower despite a friendly inventory data report, but we've been higher for several weeks now here on crude oil getting a bit overbought, and despite the friendly news, we are lower on crude oil, down a 90. Eight cents on Feb crude all $73.28 that's two bucks off the morning highs of 7529 gasoline down a penny and a quarter $2 one and a quarter cents. Diesel fuel down $2 and a quarter cents to $2.34 and a quarter cents. Again, it is black swan hunting season for the cattle market. And if you're interested in what LRPs can do for you livestock risk protection, insurance and or utilizing the option market, we're the ones that can explain it to you. Your banker can't, and neither can your car salesman that sells you the insurance. We can do that at 701-222-0221. Or our phone numbers are on the website, Heartlandinvest.com thank you for listening and have a profitable day.