Market Overview
Grain markets continued heating up as escalating disruptions in the Black Sea pushed wheat sharply higher and lifted corn and soybeans along with it.
Kansas City wheat briefly appeared ready to make another limit-up run, trading as much as 35 cents higher before backing away from its session peak.
While hot and dry weather across the Plains remains a concern, the biggest driver continues to be the growing shutdown of grain movement out of Russia and Ukraine.
🌍 Black Sea Disruptions
The Russian wheat harvest is underway, but exporters are struggling to move grain through the region.
Normally, Russian wheat moves through the Sea of Azov, under the Kerch Bridge, through the Bosporus Strait and into the Mediterranean.
That route is now heavily restricted.
Current concerns include:
Very little wheat moving out of the Sea of Azov.
Restrictions around the Kerch Strait.
Continued attacks on deep-water Black Sea ports.
Major damage to Ukrainian export facilities.
Additional strikes around Odesa.
The issue is not a lack of wheat. The issue is getting that wheat into the global market.
The world produces approximately 800 million metric tons of wheat, with roughly 200 million metric tons moving through global trade each year.
Russia and Ukraine were expected to account for about 61 million metric tons of those exports.
With movement now severely restricted, global importers—particularly countries in Africa and other wheat-dependent regions—are becoming increasingly concerned about securing supplies.
