📊 Big Picture Takeaways
USDA report had a bearish tone, led by weakness in wheat
Markets reacting to adjustments vs expectations
Outside markets (oil, geopolitics, dollar) adding volatility
🌾 Wheat Market – Bearish Surprise
USDA increased wheat carryout by ~7 million bushels (unexpected)
Key changes:
Durum imports +6 million bushels
Seed usage -1 million bushels
New carryout: 938 million bushels
Market reaction:
Wheat sold off throughout the day
Pulled lower from overnight strength
👉 Weather factor:
Rain expected in Kansas
Big question: Will it reach the driest western areas?
That uncertainty is why wheat is pressured—but not collapsing
🌱 Soybeans – Quiet Strength Despite USDA “Shuffle”
USDA increased soybean crush by +35 million bushels (strong demand)
BUT:
Offset by cutting exports by 35 million bushels
Net effect = no change to carryout
