The Trump traders are getting taken to the woodshed again today. Their projections that tariffs would bury grain prices—combined with concerns over improved weather and Argentina flooding the market—turned out to be wrong. Soybeans are climbing, reaching a new high for the calendar year. Corn has also tagged its high for the year, though there's been a brief stall.
There’s word that President Trump will meet with President Xi of China later today. Notably, when tariffs went into effect overnight, China did not place tariffs on U.S. soybeans, just as Mexico had never intended to apply tariffs to U.S. corn. The export lineup this morning exceeded 130,000 metric tons of corn sold to South Korea. This sparked a rally in the corn market, which pulled soybeans higher. Soybeans broke through the 200-day moving average, a significant technical barrier not breached last year.
Currently, corn prices are the highest of 2024, and soybeans—though not yet at a yearly high—are climbing above technical resistance. As long as prices hold above $10.65 (currently 10 cents higher), this may encourage more technical buying from index funds. Corn positions have grown to historic levels—among the top four in history.
Soybean meal rose sharply, up $10.60 per ton to $314.30, reversing last week's oil spread. Soybean oil, which had previously soared due to tariffs on Canadian canola, dropped 71 cents today to $45.80 per hundredweight.
Here are key market updates:
Soybeans: March contract up 17.25 cents at $10.75¼; May up 15.5 cents at $10.88¼; July up 14 cents at $11.01. Notably, bull spreading is occurring—healthy markets bull spread, while weak ones bear spread. November beans are up 10.25 cents to $10.73½.
Corn: March contract up 6.5 cents to $4.95¼; May up 6.25 cents at $5.06; July up 4 cents; December up 3.25 cents at $4.68½.
Wheat: Chicago March up 9.5 cents to $5.76¼; Kansas March up 8.5 cents at $5.94¼; Minneapolis March gaining 3 cents at $6.19½.
Cattle futures fell again today after an earlier sharp drop, though they've recovered slightly from session lows. April cattle are about $1.30 off the lows, with feeder cattle similarly about $1 off. Boxed beef prices rose by $1.74 for choice cuts and 91 cents for select. Cash trade likely won't materialize until later this week.
Key cattle and hog updates:
February cattle down 90 cents to $202.07; April down $1.47 to $198.67; June off $1.15 to $193.32.
Feeder cattle: March down $2.27 at $268.22; April off $2.20 at $267.57; May down $2.22 at $265.75; August off $1.72 at $267.42.
April hogs rose $3.50 to $89.85, while June climbed $2.85 to $102.17.
In commodities, gold rose $19 an ounce to $2,876—a new contract high. March silver is up 53 cents to $33.07. Bitcoin dropped $1,795 to fall below $100,000, now sitting at $99,547.
Crude oil, which was sharply lower earlier at $70.67, recovered slightly, now down just 16 cents to $73. Gasoline for the March contract is down 2.25 cents to $2.09½, while March heating oil fell 3.5 cents to $2.43.
