Market Overview
The weather may be heating up, but the grain trade moved sharply in the opposite direction.
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all traded lower as a steep collapse in crude oil triggered broad risk-off selling across commodity markets. Wheat attempted to trade higher several times overnight and again during the morning session, but those gains eventually gave way.
Soybeans suffered the largest losses after posting a strong rally throughout the previous week.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
Weather remains a longer-term concern, particularly across the western Corn Belt.
Midday forecasts continue to show:
Limited rainfall across western production areas
Mostly scattered thunderstorm chances
Better rain potential from central Minnesota and Iowa eastward
A continued drying trend in the western Corn Belt into August
Crop condition ratings for both corn and soybeans are expected to decline, with another reduction possible next week if the forecast remains hot and dry.
Conditions this July have been significantly different from last year, when much of the growing region experienced cooler temperatures and better moisture.
That is raising additional questions about USDA’s current yield projections.
🌽 Corn
Corn futures traded lower as outside-market pressure overwhelmed weather concerns.
USDA’s projected trendline yield of 183 bushels per acre is becoming increasingly difficult to justify as heat and dryness persist across western growing areas.
Corn Futures
December Corn
Down 13½ cents
$4.74
Although the crop is not yet made, continued stress across the western Corn Belt could make the current national yield estimate difficult to achieve.
🌱 Soybeans
Soybeans were the biggest loser of the session after rallying every day during the previous week and finishing near weekly highs.
