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Risk-Off Rally Sparks Double-Digit Gains in Grains | Wheat Leads the Charge
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Risk-Off Rally Sparks Double-Digit Gains in Grains | Wheat Leads the Charge

Heartland Market Talk Podcast 02/12/2026

🔥 Big Picture: Risk-Off Money Rotation

  • Broad market liquidation underway:

    • Gold down $147

    • Silver down $7.72

    • Dow down 600+ points

    • Bitcoin down $2,255

    • Crude oil down $1.90

  • When funds lose money in long positions (stocks/metals), they often:

    • Exit short grain positions

    • Buy back wheat & beans

  • Result: Strong grain rally led by wheat


🌾 Wheat Market: Short Covering + Bull Spreads

Kansas City Wheat (Winter Wheat)

  • March: Up 16¢ to 554 ½ — highest since November

  • May: Up 14¢ to 565 ¾

  • Front months stronger than deferreds = Bull spreading (friendly structure)

Chicago Wheat

  • March: Up 14 ½¢ to 551 ¾

  • May: Up 12 ¼¢ to 557 ½

Minneapolis Wheat

  • March: Up 7 ¼¢ to 577 ½

  • May: Up 7 ¾¢ to 589 ¾

  • September: Up 8 ½¢ to 620

👉 Funds aggressively covering shorts as outside markets tumble.


🌱 Soybeans: China Truce Headlines Fuel Rally

Key News

  • Chinese Morning Times reports:

    • 1-year tariff truce agreed

    • President Trump to visit China March 31

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