📈 Market Snapshot – Higher Across the Board
Markets are higher across the board today
Follow-through from President Trump’s announcement yesterday
Trump announced China will buy 8 million metric tons of old-crop soybeans
Trade reaction:
Widespread disbelief
“No signed deal”
Premiums to Brazil questioned
This skepticism mirrors November’s reaction—which turned out to be wrong
🇨🇳 Why China Will Likely Buy Again
Last time:
China bought 12 MMT in just 2 months
Paid a premium to Brazil
Spent $400+ million extra
Why it didn’t matter:
They avoided $90 billion in tariffs
This time:
Estimated extra cost: ~$295 million
Same logic applies:
Keep Trump happy
Avoid massive tariffs
Conclusion: The math works — China will likely buy
🌱 Soybean Supply & Price Implications
USDA soybean carryout currently estimated around 350 million bushels
Some say 450 mb, but tightening is coming either way
If China buys:
Carryout could drop well below 150 million bushels
What that means:
