🌾 Daily Market Recap
Grain futures were mixed to slightly lower today after another choppy session. Both corn and soybeans traded on either side of unchanged overnight and throughout the day, but neither market ever gained meaningful traction after opening firm. Overall, the session felt heavy and lacked follow-through.
🌱 Soybeans
Soybeans were supported early by positive export news, with 190,000 metric tons sold to the Philippines, a somewhat unexpected buyer. That news briefly shifted the crush spread, lifting soybean oil and meal, which helped stabilize bean prices.
However, by late trade, soybeans softened as the market focused on what comes next. China has essentially wrapped up its roughly 12 million metric tons of soybean purchases, something many bears doubted would happen. While some of those sales won’t ship until March—and could technically still be canceled—the current pace of export inspections remains strong, suggesting real movement of grain rather than paper sales.
March beans: down 2¼ at 1055½
May beans: down 2¼ at 1066½
🌽 Corn
Corn export inspections came in above expectations, reinforcing that grain purchased over the holidays is moving at a fast pace. Despite this, futures remain pressured by skepticism surrounding the USDA’s latest report.
The USDA increased corn acreage by 1.3 million acres, citing fewer silage acres, while also raising yield to 186.5 bushels per acre. Many in the trade question this logic, noting that additional acres often come from lower-producing ground and that silage hybrids are not the highest-yielding grain varieties.
The belief remains that basis strength and continued exports, especially into the second quarter, may eventually challenge USDA assumptions.
March corn: down ½ at 424
May corn: down ¼ at 431¾
July corn: up ¼ at 438¼
🌾 Wheat
Wheat futures were lower overall, with soft red wheat under more pressure than hard wheat. Cold temperatures are expected across parts of Kansas, but dryness and limited snow cover remain concerns, particularly in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Chicago March: down 7½ at 510½
Kansas City March: down 3¾ at 523½
Minneapolis March: down 3¼ at 561¾
September new crop: down 2 at 602½
🐄 Livestock
Livestock markets attempted to recover from Friday’s sharp selloff, though gains were limited.
Cattle remain cautious due to concerns over new world screwworm detections in Mexico, especially given their proximity to the U.S. border. While this would normally be supportive for U.S. cattle, the location and timing raised fear instead.
February live cattle: up 52¢ at 232.67
April live cattle: up 90¢ at 234.87
June live cattle: up $1.30 at 230.90
Feeder cattle posted stronger rebounds in deferred contracts, reflecting larger discounts.
Hogs softened after recent strength:
February hogs: down 40¢ at 87.87
June hogs: up 57¢ at 108.07
💰 Outside Markets
Gold and silver hit new all-time highs as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns weighed on the dollar.
The U.S. dollar index dropped sharply, down 92 points, after reports that a Danish fund is liquidating $100 million in U.S. bonds, pressuring interest rates.
Bitcoin slipped back under $90,000.
Crude oil rose on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, and a weaker dollar.
📞 More Information
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