Market Overview
Grain markets staged an impressive turnaround after opening lower overnight.
Pressure from sharply weaker crude oil and hopes for additional rainfall across the western Corn Belt initially weighed on corn, soybeans, and wheat. However, as the trading session progressed, buyers stepped back in, pushing all three markets higher.
Wheat led the recovery as traders grew increasingly skeptical that any meaningful ceasefire would restore Black Sea grain exports in the near future.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
Weather remains a key market driver, but confidence in forecasted rainfall is beginning to fade.
While models continue to advertise rain across parts of the western Corn Belt, much of the precipitation has been:
Light and scattered
Accompanied by strong winds
Insufficient to significantly improve stressed crops
Many of the driest areas continue to miss meaningful rainfall, raising concerns that crop damage has already occurred in portions of the western Corn Belt.
🌽 Corn
Corn reversed sharply higher after early weakness.
The overnight selloff was driven primarily by falling crude oil prices and hopes for improved weather. Once the day session opened, however, buyers returned as traders questioned whether forecast rainfall would be enough to stabilize crop conditions.
Corn Futures
December Corn
Up 7¾ cents
$4.71¾
September Corn
Up 8 cents
$4.48¾
The rally pushed December corn back above its 220-day moving average, an important technical development that could improve chart momentum if prices hold above that level.
🌱 Soybeans
Soybeans followed corn higher, supported by another round of Chinese purchases and strength in soybean oil.
Export Sales
USDA announced:
488,000 metric tons sold to China
An additional 130,000 metric tons sold to an unknown destination, widely believed by traders to also be China
Soybean Futures
November Soybeans
Up 6 cents
$11.93½
September Soybeans
Up 5½ cents
$11.76¼
Soybean Oil
Soybean oil experienced a dramatic reversal after following crude oil lower overnight.
Support returned as traders reacted positively to developments surrounding Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and anticipated announcements regarding small refinery exemptions.
December Soybean Oil
Up $1.25
68.15 cents/lb
🌾 Wheat
Wheat led the grain recovery as optimism surrounding a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire faded.
Recent comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling for a ceasefire were viewed by many traders as unlikely to produce immediate results.
Instead, markets are increasingly recognizing that Black Sea grain movement is likely to remain heavily restricted for the foreseeable future.
That realization brought buyers back into the wheat market following last week’s sharp correction.
Wheat Futures
Chicago September Wheat
Up 13½ cents
$6.42¾
Kansas City September Wheat
Up 12 cents
$7.19½
Minneapolis September Wheat
Up 9¼ cents
$6.99
Minneapolis December Wheat
Up 9¼ cents
$7.23¾
🐄 Cattle Markets
Cattle futures started the day sharply higher before giving back much of those gains during midday trading.
After five consecutive sessions of strong recovery, traders appeared to pause and reassess the market.
While Mexican feeder cattle are still expected to take time before arriving in meaningful numbers, their eventual return is providing confidence for feedlot buyers planning future placements.
Boxed Beef
Choice
Up $5.36
$366.74
Select
Down $2.25
$343.98
Feeder Cattle Index
Up $1.06
$364.89
Live Cattle
August
Down 10 cents
$233.65
After trading roughly $2 higher earlier in the session, August cattle faded back toward unchanged.
October
Up 5 cents
$227.32
December
Down 12 cents
$226.82
Feeder cattle also experienced significant intraday volatility as markets worked through the implications of future Mexican feeder imports.
📌 Bottom Line
Grain markets shook off overnight weakness and finished firmly higher as concerns about western Corn Belt crop stress and ongoing Black Sea export disruptions outweighed lower crude oil prices. Corn reclaimed an important technical level, soybeans were supported by fresh Chinese demand and strength in soybean oil, and wheat led the rally as traders concluded meaningful Black Sea export improvements remain unlikely in the near term. Cattle futures paused after several days of recovery, with markets beginning to adjust to the longer-term outlook for Mexican feeder cattle imports.
