Friendly WASDE Report Sends Wheat Limit Up

📊 USDA Delivers a Bullish WASDE Surprise

• Today’s WASDE report came in much friendlier than expected

• USDA sharply cut winter wheat production estimates

• 📉 Key takeaway:

  • USDA slashed winter wheat production by roughly 150 million bushels below trade expectations

• Areas seeing major production losses:

  • Texas

  • Oklahoma

  • Kansas

  • Colorado

  • Eastern Colorado

  • Montana

• 🌾 Main reasons:

  • Drought

  • Freeze damage

  • Abandoned acreage

• 📌 Big market signal:

  • USDA usually lowers numbers slowly over time

  • The fact they made a large cut now suggests conditions may actually be even worse ahead

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🌾 Kansas Wheat Goes Limit Up

• Kansas City wheat exploded higher:

  • July Kansas wheat limit up 45¢ → 7.31¼

• All Kansas wheat contracts:

  • Locked limit higher

• Chicago wheat:

  • Up 43½¢ → 6.77½

  • Also traded limit up multiple times

• Minneapolis wheat:

  • July up 39¢ → 7.25½

  • Trading only about 6¢ under Kansas wheat

• 📌 Market message:

  • Hard red winter wheat supplies are becoming extremely tight

  • Market trying to ration wheat:

    • Less exports

    • Less feed usage

    • Preserve supply for domestic consumption