Grain futures are higher as well. Corn is sharply higher today, back to last week’s highs before tumbling about 15 cents from $4.70. We’re right back up there now. Recall yesterday’s strong ethanol numbers—320.5 million gallons were ground, a record for this time of year. That propped corn up yesterday, and this morning, export sales came in strong. We sold almost 59 million bushels of corn, about 1.5 million metric tons.
At this pace, we only need to sell just over 10 million metric tons each week through September 1 to meet the USDA’s expectations and maintain their carryout estimate at 1.4 billion bushels. However, when you factor in ethanol grind, they’re probably about 25 million bushels behind.
Yes, corn exports will naturally slow as we move farther into summer when South America steps in, but the USDA may need to ramp up our exports or buy another 100 million bushels—if not more. That would put carryout closer to 1.3 billion bushels. That’s a stocks-to-use ratio under 9%, and 50% of the Corn Belt is dry.
Of course, “plant in the dust, the bins will bust”—that’s always a good thing early on. But we’ll need rain before the heat sets in, as it always does around the Fourth of July, when you’re wiping sweat from your brow at the parade and cracking open a cold one.
That’s where we stand. There’s a powder keg building in this corn market as we recover. We’re at the high of the day and the high of this multi-week recovery since the March 4 low. Currently, May corn is up 8 cents at $4.70. We’re seeing bull spreading too: July corn is up 6 ¾ at $4.76, and December new crop is up 1 ½ cents at $4.53.
Now to soybeans—they’re at the highs of the day as well. Export sales were on the lower end of expectations, but we’re still moving beans. We also saw news that China took nearly double the amount of beans in January and February this year compared to last year. Of course, you could argue that’s all front-loading, but for now, May beans are up 5 ¼ at $10.13 ½. July beans are up 4 ¼ at $10.25 ¾, and November beans are up ¾ of a cent at $10.10 ¾.
On the wheat side, we’re lower on the session. Turkey announced last week they would start buying wheat again, then reversed course, saying they won’t take any. That softened the wheat trade. Export sales also disappointed, with 250,000 metric tons of winter wheat canceled. New crop sales came in at 500,000 metric tons—still underwhelming.
Wheat is lower, but finding some support as dryness continues in the Plains. Kansas did get a little snow, but it only amounted to about a tenth of an inch of moisture, with a few spots north of Garden City reporting about 0.35 inches. Otherwise, it’s dry, and there’s no rain in the forecast through early April.
So we’re lower on the session but off the lows. Kansas City May wheat is down 8 cents at $5.86 ¾. Chicago May wheat is off 5 cents at $5.58 ½. Minneapolis May wheat is down 5 ½ cents at $6.06 ¼, July off 5 ¼ at $6.22 ¼, and September down as well at $6.36.
Cattle futures—no cash trade reported yet. Boxed beef is higher again today, encouraging for a strong trade in the South. April cattle are up $1.62 at $208.45, and we’re likely to see $207 in the South. June cattle are up $2.02 at $204.87, and August cattle are gaining $1.57 at $201.65.
Feeder cattle are at contract highs across the board. The feeder index is approaching $286. March feeders are up $1.22 at $288.05, April is gaining $1.32 at $288.05, May up $1.20 at $288.70, and August is up $1.27 at $293.17.
As for Friday’s cattle-on-feed report, expectations are bullish. Marketing is seen at 92% of last year’s levels, placements at only 86%, and cattle on feed at 98.3% of a year ago.
The hog trade is mixed—April hogs are up 12 cents at $85.70, while June hogs are down 42 cents at $96.07.
Over in the metals, gold hit new highs overnight at $3,065 before selling off on profit-taking. It’s currently up $5.80 at $3,047. May silver is off 23 cents at $33.97.
Crude oil is higher as more sanctions are applied to Iran, helping lift the market from yesterday’s doldrums. May crude oil is up $1.15 at $68.06. Gasoline is up nearly 2 cents at $2.19 a gallon, and diesel is climbing 2 cents as well to $2.20 ¾.
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Thanks for listening, and have a profitable day!
