Wheat rips higher in the night session, when GFS pulls rain for this weekend in Kansas.

April 28, 2026

The wheat trade is sharply higher this morning, pulling corn with it, but that’s not how the evening started. The USDA put out a ridiculous crop condition report yesterday, showing the total HRW wheat rating steady with the prior week and only lowering Kansas conditions from good to excellent by 1%. It did collapse Colorado and Nebraska, but left Kansas down just 1%, putting their ratings in question again compared to live observations.

What got the wheat market to rip higher at night was the GFS at midnight giving up its dream of rain for this coming weekend and continuing the ongoing story of seeing crop-saving rains in the 11-15 day forecast, but can never get them into the 6-day. For this reason, the HRW wheat market pressed to new highs overnight with the September contract trading over $7.00. With KC wheat well over $2.00 above corn, as it rises now, it pulls corn with wheat, less wheat in the feed bunk. (Granted, some of it’s getting grazed in southern Kansas, where there is active heading on a crop that is not bad looking in that area.)

The world is also waking up to the reality that wheat production is not something to count on, as Australia and China are entering the mix. Add to the reality that all new-crop wheat going into the ground soon in Brazil and other parts of Australia is either unavailable or priced uneconomically. How will this play out in the end production numbers months from now?

Yesterday’s corn and soybean planting data would be considered bearish for trading, with corn at 25% planted and soybeans at 23%. These are above last year and well above the five-year average. Outside markets continue to offer support, thwarting the bears’ constant drumbeat that these grain prices do not deserve to rally. The charts have been pointing up for wheat, corn and soybeans, and the Midwest drought is now manifesting these rallies. We have some hedge sales reports from the overnight in an upcoming text.

Oil prices are pushing higher in the night session, with spot back over 100. The rally stalled at that point (around 7:00 a.m. CT), as the UAE announced it was leaving OPEC and would set its own oil production decisions. Which, at this time, means going into full production and exporting.

Live and feeder cattle futures closed sharply higher yesterday, but will likely have to contend with outside markets this morning, which could prompt a softer start. The question is whether the softer start is maintained, but the market has quickly shrugged off fears of persistently high fuel prices. Yesterday’s cash feeder index barely moved, when it was just up two cents at $369.35. April feeders expire this Thursday and are at $370.57 yesterday’s close.

Box beef prices got underway higher again this week, the choice gaining $2.56 and is at $389.56, with select just $0.96 below that at $388.60, posting again yesterday of $2.53. Volatility remains extreme in the cattle trade, with June right back up into the resistance point of 249.50-252. Meanwhile, August feeders have renewed resistance at 372-373, then ultimately at 383, last fall’s continuation contract high.

Last week’s lows are significant to the cattle trade’s upward momentum, with seasonals on feeders is typically higher in May. The question is now: will corn manifest a second-quarter rally that typically peaks in May and could affect the feeder board? We have maintained the posture that we are in an aging bull market, and that rallies to resistance points on the charts which we have revealed are just good areas to lay in LRP’s and option strategies.

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