Wheat catches a bit overnight while soybeans give up Monday’s gains on crude oil weakness.
June 16, 2026
Grain Overview
The grain trade is mixed this morning, as weakness overnight was tied to crude oil slipping below Monday’s levels, with grains also absorbing soybean and corn ratings that had showed a 1% improvement while spring wheat was up 3%. Chicago wheat (SRW) caught a bid in the early morning hours, as concern is starting to grow again on scab disease that is likely developing over a large portion of the production area with excessively wet conditions and cool temperatures that promote the disease.
Also, attention is developing over the European wheat crop that is dropping into a deep drought (French milling wheat is showing a gain this morning of $2.50 and MT at 202.25.). This is also including portions of Ukraine. Hot and dry weather conditions have anchoring in, especially over southern France for temperatures of be in the hundreds while 90s will remain throughout the country. This weather pattern looks to be locking in and can also affect their summer corn and oil seed production. Europe has been importing corn and beans from the US, and this will just look to increase that demand later this fall.
The Australian Weather Bureau has also acknowledged the super El Niño and it’s being anticipated that it could be affecting farmers seeding plans that is still going on, with expensive and hard to acquire fertilizer being an issue to applied during an anticipated drought year.
Market players are now looking ahead to Friday’s formal signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, although much of the initial market reaction has already come and gone. Risk assets wasted little time embracing the news, with equities racing to fresh record highs while Brent crude retreated toward the $80 per barrel area as fears of a prolonged supply disruption eased.
While key details remain subject to negotiation, current discussions suggest Iran could receive access to a significant portion of its frozen assets (if it adheres to certain expectations), along with funding aimed at rebuilding infrastructure damaged during the conflict. The removal of US naval restrictions would represent another major shift, although questions remain regarding future transit fees and how aggressively Iran may seek to monetize strategic shipping routes without disrupting global commerce.
The long term political and economic consequences of the agreement will likely be debated for years. For now, however, investors appear focused on the prospect that one of the market’s largest geopolitical risks may finally be moving into the rearview mirror.
Cattle Overview
Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher yesterday with August feeders closing above important 360 mark. This occurred even with the feeder index tumbling $5.34 to be at $362.67. This Friday is a CME holiday, so cash trade is anticipated to take place earlier in the week, which right now is anticipated that steady money. Last week’s cash trade was mostly at $256, putting the June contract and a big discount with 14 days to expiration. Thursday after the close is the monthly COF report.
On the charts, August cattle are pressing their three-week resistance near 243.75-244, with upside will flag resistance at 247.00. Last week’s support at 234-234.50 looks intact to build gains off of. The August feeder cattle close above 360 is constructive with an attempt at 366 the next target. Major support is at 249-250.
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