War, weather, and demand support grain prices overnight.

July 20, 2026

Grain Overview

The grain trade opened higher overnight, with wheat posting the strongest performance during the first few minutes of trading. Corn and soybeans initially faded with wheat before recovering to new overnight highs later in the session as forecasts continued to advertise a warmer and drier than desired weather pattern developing across the Plains and the western Midwest.

Fighting continued over the weekend between Russia and Ukraine as both sides kept targeting port and logistics infrastructure. No new reports surfaced indicating additional major grain loading facilities had been damaged beyond what was already reported last week, but one thing is becoming increasingly clear. With no meaningful peace negotiations taking place, the Black Sea is no longer viewed as a consistently reliable source of inexpensive grain.

One of Ukraine’s key export routes into Europe is the Danube River, where water levels have now fallen to their lowest point in nearly 30 years. That has prompted irrigation restrictions while also disrupting commercial shipping and tourism. Rainfall is expected to improve across Romania and Poland over the coming week, but much of Western Europe has received very little precipitation in recent weeks as drought conditions continue to worsen.