Ukraine damaged a Russian grain port overnight. Wheat prices spike.
July 30, 2026
Grain Overview
Wheat futures surged overnight, providing support to the rest of the grain complex. Buying accelerated after reports that Ukrainian attacks damaged Russia’s Taman export terminal near the Kerch Strait, including grain loading equipment and storage facilities used for grain and sunflower oil. Interior grain movement within Russia also remains sluggish, while the recent decline in US spring wheat crop conditions due to heat has added another layer of support. Paris French milling wheat pushed higher by $6.50 /MTs as of this morning, also reflecting a turn in values like US prices, along with Euronext corn continuing to maintain its recent price rise without any profit-taking.
Ukraine also continues to demonstrate its ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Black Sea, keeping risk premiums elevated for shipowners and limiting export activity. At the same time, concerns are growing that Russia could respond with additional strikes on Odessa’s port infrastructure. One factor the market may be overlooking is that major export terminals cannot be repaired quickly. Facilities that suffer significant damage could take many months, or even longer, to rebuild, and large-scale reconstruction is unlikely until the war has ended.
Weather forecasts continue to call for improved rainfall across much of the Corn Belt, capping gains in corn and soybeans. However, for some drought-affected areas, the moisture may arrive too late to fully restore yield potential, particularly in dry land corn. That is prompting more crop scouts to trim production estimates. Export demand remains uneven, although new crop corn and soybean sales continue to run ahead of last year’s pace.
Export sales data this morning was encouraging, with old crop corn still running higher than USDA expectations at 362,900 MT. New crop was 1.06 MMTs. Soybeans, due to active Chinese buying last week, had cumulative sales of 1.3 MMTs. Wheat was at 285 MMTs.
Recent losses in soybeans have been more than the weather, as there are rumors that a Chinese business is selling 400 rocket launchers to Iran. That’s followed by this week, the FCC placing a ban on the import of advanced robotic devices, which include humanoid Chinese robots, because of security risks. The lack of Chinese buying has many thinking that they will sideline it for now. It’s not likely that China will miss the agreement it made, especially with the upcoming September summit with Pres. Trump. Look for China to start booking cargoes with flash sales either at the end of this week or starting next week.
Wheat prices turned the corner for this week’s washout, and once row crops get a look at the rains for the Western corn belt by Friday, current lows or challenges of those lows in corn which currently is at 468.4 and soybeans 1184.2, will soon be the low watermark for the recent pullback before another advance takes place when we get into August. After this rain event, the forecast returns heat into the Western Corn Belt region, which will certainly be a drag on national yields for corn and soybeans going into the August WASDE crop report on Tuesday the 12th.
Cattle Overview
Yesterday’s sharp rally in live cattle prices helped push October cattle close to recovery resistance at 225-226, while cash bids are at 228. Offers are near 234. In yesterday’s rally, feeder cattle failed to take out their Tuesday high in the front contracts, while deferred feeders made new lows for the move yesterday and recovered. They also did not take out their previous day’s highs. For now, the rally is perceived as a short-covering bounce in the declining market.
Optimism for the bounce yesterday is the reality that reopening the board is going to be a very solo process compared to what was tried last year, when it was quickly closed back up. Aggressive opening last year of a new port every week was in play, but this time only one port is going to start the process, and the scrutiny of each animal will not be a streamlined event. A wall of feeder cattle is not coming, but restarting calves is in play, with 2027 contracts at risk of seeing the full number of ports open and working at capacity.
August live cattle recovered deep into resistance on the continuation charts at 225-226. Whereas significant resistance will be in play at 230 as the cash trade plays out in August. Corrective support is solid at 218-219. September feeder cattle are working at near-term resistance that’s present at 341-342, and if cleared, continuation charts have major resistance at 348-350. The October feeder cattle contract will become the lead spot contract in two weeks, carrying a $9.00 discount to September. The continuation charts will always reflect the resistance now as each contract comes on. This means as October feeder cattle try to rally, the resistance range will be formidable at 339-341.
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