Today, the USDA takes another crack at guessing demand in today’s WASDE report.
June 11, 2026
Grain Overview
The overnight grain trade ended mixed ahead of today’s June WASDE crop report out at 11:00 a.m. CDST. The report is typically a non-event, but today, fresh news could prompt price action. Demand is the factor in the June report, and with this morning’s export sales showing corn at a solid 1 MMT and new crop near 1 MMT, the pressure is on for them to acknowledge they have to start bumping up the old-crop export numbers by at least 100 million bushels. We are at 98% sold on a crop year that doesn’t end until September 1.
Old-crop carryout numbers expected for corn are 2.14 billion bu; new-crop at 1.95 billion bu. Soybeans have old-crop at 340 Mil Bu and new-crop at 310 Mil Bu. The old-crop wheat carryout is 942 million bu, with the new crop at 765 million bu. It’ll be interesting to see how the USDA plays with these numbers for their satisfaction.
The grain trade has seen quite the flush over the past several weeks, but Monday brought about a bid in corn soybeans and wheat that has stopped the daily slide, but recovery rallies have been shallow with sellers quickly showing up on 10/$0.15 bounces on corn and beans, while wheat has seen a recovery of 25-$0.30, with the latter seeing immediate and aggressive selling on those recoveries.
Today gives us the carryout news, while June 30 brings the acreage adjustments, if any. The other two factors will be whether the weather takes a dramatic shift (good or bad) at the opening of July, and when China starts to announce a lowering of tariffs (this will occur), which would supersede the start of a buying campaign for the promised Chinese acquisition of 25 MMTs of new crop beans and $17 billion in agricultural product purchases.
Given the military actions taking place by Pres. Trump against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed. What traders are not anticipating (as they can’t see beyond a three-hour trading session) is that 85% of the fertilizer utilized in Brazil comes from the Persian Gulf. Planting decisions are starting to be made for fall planting which starts in just over two months, and with the lack of a banking industry like the US has, their high input costs and questionable availability of needed inputs, along with the super El Niño announced and acknowledged yesterday that is started, South America is going to have a tough row to hoe, so to speak, this fall in trying to maintain annual record production.
Cattle Overview
Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher yesterday, but feeders still slipped back late in the session to stay at or just under a significant moving average marker called the 20-day MA. The feeder index slipped $0.14 yesterday to $368.06. Meanwhile, the negotiated fed cattle trade was again quiet, with a small test in the north at $402 off $3, while trade in the South remains quiet with a firm outlook.
August live cattle over the past week created support at 234, with resistance at 245; the rest is a pinball machine. August feeder cattle have stalled out under 358, with initial support at 349-350, which has held for two sessions in a row, with 344 as the next ledge of support. For the NWS, 335 has been the defined low from the volume blowout after a month’s worth of selling. The NWS announcement traded that low, with a vicious outside-range recovery day, as feeder cattle traversed $20 in that one-day recovery.
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