Today is the last trading day of the week before closing for a three-day weekend.
June 18, 2026
Grain Overview
After yesterday’s strong performance, corrective action is taking place ahead of a three-day weekend. Markets will close at the regular time today and resume Sunday night at 7:0 p.m. CT. Export sales this morning again showed consistent sales of over 1 MMT for corn, even though we should be tapering off seasonally. The USDA will have to reconcile its export numbers, which need to climb another 100-150 million bu, while ethanol grind could be reduced by 25 million bu, and crop stocks numbers for September 1.
The MOU was signed by Iran and the US overnight, allowing the flow of goods and oil to resume through the Strait of Hormuz without tolls. This is not a peace agreement that ends the conflict; rather, as the title states, it is a memorandum of understanding outlining what will take place, while further negotiations will determine that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb, that nuclear material will be recovered, and that Gulf states will reinvest in Iran.
Basis values have firmed across the Midwest, as US farmers have not been joining the selling that index funds created late last week. The improving basis, along with the recent price bounce into yesterday, did stimulate some movement. The next building story for the grain trade beyond the SRW wheat crop, which is likely struggling with disease, is the super El Niño, which is confirmed by numerous national weather sources. What is consistent in the study of El Niño since 1950 is that Australian wheat production will be off for their crop year; the question is to what extent. With high input costs affecting Australia and their plantings over the last 45 days, entering their finishing mode in July, it’s likely acreage will also be down due to the fear of putting such large input costs into a crop that may struggle with some form of drought.
Over the coming weekend and into early July, the French crops are under extreme heat that will be in the 90s to the lower 100s. No rain is in the forecast through July 1. This drought is spreading across Europe and into Germany and Poland and is now thought to be moving into Ukraine. This will increase the export prospects for row crops into Europe and improve potential wheat exports, with European and Australian supplies potentially reduced. The lows made in HRW wheat over a week ago and SRW wheat on Sunday night could possibly be setting up to be the harvest lows. Price retreats will find end-user interest and likely short covering from index funds to continue.
Cattle Overview
Cattle trading was corrective on Wednesday, as we head into the monthly COF report due out this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. CT. Estimates are for Marketing at 89%, placements at 95%, and the June 1 at Feedlot Inventory at 100%. Slow marketing rates are from the building carcass rates, which are responsible for the large inventory number.
Yesterday’s feeder index moved a nominal to cents higher at $3 and 64.03, with the feeder cattle trade now finding futures premium again. Cash trade this week is expected to be fully steady as last week had seen light purchase volumes and Packers could be a bit short bought. The May 1 high puts August live cattle resistance at 251.50-252. Support is at 242-243, the 40-day MA. August feeder cattle are targeting 370 for resistance, while nearby support has now been built up at 360-361.
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