This morning, strength has wheat being the leader. USDA has a lower corn acreage expectation.
February 19, 2026
The grain trade finds this morning with wheat the leader. Soybeans had a bout of buying overnight, as demand from both export sales and domestic consumption remains elevated. This is even with fewer Chinese business than last year. The wheat trade remains firm, as reports of winter wheat refreezing in Ukraine and parts of Russia following the recent snow melt raise concerns. Also, the lack of a Russian/Ukrainian peace resolution after nearly 4 years of war remains elusive. Odessa continues to have problems maintaining exports due to recent military strikes against it.
The Outlook Forum numbers released this morning from the USDA, and corn acreage was down to 94 Mil acres, about a million less than was thought, while soybeans are pegged at 85 Mil acres as expected, while wheat was down 300,000 acres at 45 million. The yield guesses were slightly lower than expected, with corn at 183 BPA and soybeans at 53 BPA. Ending stocks of corn would decline by 290 Mil Bu from 2.127 Bil Bu in 2025-26 to 1.837 Bil Bu for the new crop. Due to increasing soybean crush, the soybean carryout rose by only 5 Mil Bu to 355 Mil Bu.
Pres. Trump signed an executive order yesterday to help maintain the US supply of glyphosate herbicides and phosphate. The president invoked the US Defense Production Act to allocate resources to strengthen domestic production and ensure adequate supplies in the years ahead.
Argentina has received rain overnight and will continue to receive rain this week, helping improve crop ratings. This will level off crop estimates after six weeks of deterioration. The rain forecasts have had no effect on the board so far, as yield production estimates were never lowered enough to justify raising them with current rains.
Tomorrow’s option expiration for the March contracts is keeping a lid on March corn at 430, while the wheat trade is pressing the short position held by index funds, which could create an interesting Friday close, if further gains can be produced beyond overnight highs. Soybean oil could target $0.60 into option expiration as a short pinch continues amid excitement over potential RVO production.
Yesterday’s live and feeder cattle trade was a consolidation of Tuesday’s sharp price bounce. The cash feeder index cooled off Biden just a nickel and is at $376.02. It’s within half a dollar of last October’s high. With box beef prices not performing this week, there is a buzz keep last week’s strong cash market steady. Estimated slaughter margins are running deep losses for the Packers. The board will continue to climb a wall of worry, as the April live and feeder cattle contracts maintain discounts, awaiting a concerning Black Swan event, which is what hedging is for. It’s musical chairs, and only cattle buyers will have the high price pen bought if the market tips. The board does not want to own any price spike high and give a reasonable hedge a chance.
A close back under 240 for April cattle will be a warning sign of momentum loss, with April feeder cattle closing under 332 a likewise signal.
Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221