The wheat trade remains seasonally weak this morning. Heat is on the way to the corn belt, but it is currently welcome.
June 26, 2026
Grain Overview
This morning’s grain trade is mostly lower, led seasonally again by wheat. This Friday is option expiration, while first notice day is next Tuesday. French milling wheat is softer today by $1.25 per MT, equivalent to 4 cents. But that’s after having recovered over half of its spring losses in yesterday’s rally. Meanwhile, Matif corn maintains its substantial gains of $22 MMT over the past two weeks, holding at $ 0.25 MMT to $0.222.50. Keep in mind that Matif corn is non-GMO. Still, a reduced European corn crop will mean stronger exports in world trade as corn stocks are lowered.
The US cash markets are showing strength, but the corn vessel lineup indicate is showing less export pull now. This morning’s export sales numbers for corn were below 1 MMT, which is seasonal, but we are still well ahead of what the USDA has us paid for this current crop year. Soybean processor bids have been jumping over the last 10 days, and the price has risen by some $0.30, while in the West, it split from 18-$0.30 gains. Ethanol bids are also slowly climbing, picking up six cents over the last two weeks.
There are expectations that we may see Iran securing US corn, soybeans, and wheat in the weeks ahead. CNBC interviewed Treasury Secretary Bessent, who stated that the US will closely monitor the release of sanctioned funds, with a large share required to go to US foodstuffs and medicines. It is literally in the MOU, which Iran states publicly it does not want to adhere to.
The upcoming weather does feature a very hot pattern developing, which is typical for this time, heading into July 4. What’s keeping the market from getting spooked is that warmth is needed at this time to speed the crop along. The problem is knowing if this heat will retrograde out after July 8. As in 1983, we now have shallow-rooted corn and soybean crops that cannot withstand long periods of heat and dryness. In 1983, the trade was shocked that the heat and dryness in the forecasts were not shifting. Supposedly, we have better forecasting methods today, and for now, this heat is welcomed and not prompting any fears of the CBOT. That is, until maybe next week.
Heat continues in Europe, reducing crop sizes. This has prompted strong gains in both corn and wheat values at the Matif. This heat will start to moderate next week, with a few chances of spotty rain. There are also reports that Russian spring wheat seeding has dropped to a record low, bringing this year’s Russian wheat crop to 87-88 MMTs.
We are now starting to see averages coming in for next week’s acreage report, and Reuters shows estimated corn acres at 95 million acres, down 300,000 acres from March 31, while soybeans are at 85.3 million acres, up 700,000 acres. Spring wheat acres show a gain of 100,000 at 9.5 Mil.
Cattle Overview
Live and feeder cattle futures moved higher yesterday, with the feeder cattle bolting to another new high close for this run, chasing the cash feeder index again. Yesterday, the feeder index gained $2.83, bringing it to $375.83. There was some live trade reported in Nebraska at $260 live and at $408 dressed. This would be slightly better than last week.
August live cattle remain subdued, while the June live cattle contract still carries a $4.00 discount to last week’s cash market with four sessions to go. August live cattle are tracking a solid $4.00 below its May highs. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle maintain a strong chart profile with a positive seasonal tendency to rally into July 1. The May high of 379.45 appears to be targeted. Last fall’s continuation high was 383. Initial support for August feeder cattle is 367-368. August live cattle have support at 243.
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