The two-week truce is on. Will it hold?

April 8, 2026

The news you know is that a two-week truce has been announced between the US/Israel/Iranian hostilities, with the Strait of Hormuz being allowed open during this window for transportation. There are over 800 ships that want out of the Persian Gulf; over 400 of them carry crude oil, plus 34 liquefied petroleum gas carriers and 19 liquefied natural gas vessels. The remainder are carrying dry commodities, like agricultural or metal products, and or containers. What is likely not discussed is that none of them wants back in until after the two-week window has been solidified, confirming that the Strait is safe. Yes, crude oil is sharply lower while grains plummet overnight, with soybeans recovering substantially in price as soybean meal anchored the reverse of the crush spread.

While this initially sounds negative for agricultural products, there is a longer-term building story here that will surprise many and catch the perma-bears off guard. Even if the fighting with Iran stops, that does not automatically close the book on agriculture’s supply story. India is a good place to start. The country uses roughly 60