The markets are preparing for another Surprise Saturday.

April 10, 2026

Morning session ended mixed, with corn and wheat re-looking at yesterday’s lows while soybeans found a firm tone on strength in soybean meal. With the crush giving up its strength on soybean oil, it’s reversed, ensuring that it respects the value at the late February, early March support values in the 315 range.

While many would say yesterday’s report was a non-event, they avoid talking about the shenanigans the USDA went to in order to keep carryouts steady on corn/beans and to push world supplies higher on wheat. Because the strong crush and profitability had been seen, they were forced to raise crush uses by 35 Mil Bu, but rather than lower the carryout by that amount and create a spike on bean values, they looked over at the export side and decided to lower that number by 35 Mil Bu as well and call carryout steady and good. The roll of the dice that will bail them out is if there will be a big bean crop later this summer, when they will then have to readjust the export number for the old crop lower. China will be buying those 8M MTs of beans, and they will likely get started just before Emperor Trump arrives in China by mid-May.