The market is toying with the hopes of an Iran/US MOU that could get signed this weekend in Geneva.

June 12, 2026

Grain Overview

Grain futures came under light pressure overnight as improving geopolitical sentiment combined with beneficial rainfall across portions of the Corn Belt. Energy markets led the weakness, with crude oil falling by more than $3.50 per barrel after President Trump said a formal agreement with Iran could be finalized as early as this weekend. According to Trump, such an agreement would pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders remain skeptical, however, as similar announcements have surfaced before only to unravel later. There is also considerable disagreement regarding control of the waterway, with the United States asserting it will oversee shipping access while Iran continues to reject that position. Even if the Strait reopens, market participants recognize that global energy logistics will not return to normal overnight. A key unknown is how quickly shipping companies will be willing to resume operations in the region and consider transit back in after weeks of heightened tensions.