The grain trade recovers from early-week selling.

March 5, 2026

Corn, soybeans, and wheat moved higher during overnight trade as new buying interest entered the market. Outside markets have begun to stabilize following the initial shock of the U.S.-Iran conflict, though most sectors remain firm. Strength in the energy complex is especially supportive for agriculture through its connection to renewable fuels.

Fundamentals are also providing underlying support. South American crop estimates have been trimmed recently. Even though production in Brazil and Argentina is still expected to be large, stronger domestic demand in those countries could reduce exportable supplies. Attention is also beginning to shift toward the upcoming U.S. planting season. USDA projections already show fewer corn acres than last year, and rising input costs could discourage even more planting. With projected demand remaining strong, it would not take much to create a situation where corn prices need to encourage additional acreage this spring. At the same time, soybean acreage cannot fall much without tightening that balance sheet as well.

The next major data points arrive soon. The USDA releases its monthly balance sheet report next Tuesday, followed by the highly anticipated planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports on the 31st. Export demand for corn remains supportive. Weekly sales exceeded 2 million metric tons, and flash sales have appeared in three of the last four sessions, easing concerns that demand was front-loaded earlier in the year.

Weather continues to influence South American production, particularly the safrinha corn crop. Planting delays are becoming more noticeable as heavy rains slow progress in Brazil. Excess moisture is also creating harvest challenges, with portions of the soybean crop showing quality issues. Some export terminals have reportedly rejected deliveries due to moisture levels exceeding safe storage limits.

Sharp gains were seen on Wednesday for live and feeder cattle futures, as they follow the stock markets’ continued recovery from early-week lows. Overnight, the stock indexes have softened, raising the prospect of the tail wagging the dog, with a softer start anticipated for the cattle trade today. Yesterday, the feeder index tumbled again by $0.66 and was at $368.93, helping narrow the discount of futures, along with futures having been in a sharp recovery mode since Monday morning’s opening. Packer margins are getting better with daily increases in box beef, and in some cases, this week, large gains. Yesterday, select was higher by $1.77 while choice picked up another $0.52.

Yesterday, April cattle traded into initial resistance at 238-239, with the next level of major resistance at the 78% retracement of the February high at 241.50. Meanwhile, April feeder cattle closed over 360, with the 62% retracement of the February high matching up with the 20-day MA at 362-363. The 78% retracement is 367.50. These are all key numbers to watch and apply catch-up sales to.

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