The grain trade recovers as fertilizer becomes the topic of the day.

March 11, 2026

The grain trade is under full recovery mode after two heavy days of selling after the Sunday night spike rally. The reality is, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to traffic, which does not help fertilizer movement that is critical at this time to keep moving for this year’s production. Opening strategic reserves is great for helping to support oil flows, but there’s no way to open a fertilizer reserve when everything is in a flux right now. Brazil needs this fertilizer movement now, with planting of the Safina corn crop delayed and underway. Reports are that the last 30% of corn planting is at risk of not having available supplies for normal application.

We are now just under three weeks away from the all-important March 31 Acreage Intention’s report and the big discussion occurring now is how many acres could shift from corn to soybeans this spring. Higher fertilizer costs and several years of tight farm margins have reduced working capital, which may influence planting decisions even though many growers traditionally prefer corn. Last season’s widespread corn disease may also encourage some rotation back to beans.