The grain trade looks towards Friday’s WASDE report and potential weekend weather changes.
July 9, 2026
Grain Overview
Yesterday’s selling spilled into the overnight trade, with stability found late in the night session. Oil prices also stabilize and rebounded as the situation in the Persian Gulf again remains concerning, and even though oil and fertilizer products are transiting out of the SOH, traffic entering back into the Persian Gulf is extremely limited to nonexistent. This is a longer-term problem, despite urea prices collapsing to their lowest levels in 10 years in June.
The extreme drought continues in Europe, with heat anticipated to last through July 24 with little or no moisture, effectively putting the maximum pressure on pollination with the yields likely off 10 MMTs in Europe. US exports will grow in the future, as the UK, Portugal, the Netherlands, and Spain (despite the current spat Pres. Trump is having with Spain over NATO) exert further downward pressure on new-crop corn carryout.
Tomorrow’s July WASDE Crop Production and Supply/Demand report has average estimates for new-crop corn carryout at 1.89 Bill Bu on a yield of 183 BPA. World ending stocks at 279 MMTs. Soybean new-crop carryout is estimated at 330 Mil Bu, on a 53 BPA, with world stocks at 125.2 MMT. Wheat carryout for new crop is now at 720 Mil Bu, with the world carryout number at 273.2 MMT.
The central US forecast for next week is less threatening than Tuesday’s, but is still not considered favorable. There are a lot of pattern variables swinging the market perceptions from July 20 forward. Market confidence is low, but high-pressure ridging will impact Midwest weather next week, with models suggesting the ridge may retrograde back west after next week. What is known is that the mid-90s will affect the Midwest, with Iowa and Illinois in this temperature grid through Saturday. Meanwhile, the 90s to lower 100s will be the feature in KS, NE, and SD. Friday’s weather modeling by the close will be a big feature for volatility heading into the weekend after the WASDE numbers after 11:00 a.m. CT.
Cattle Overview
Live and feeder cattle futures tumbled from the open yesterday, with August cattle challenging the June lows, while feeder cattle futures pushed new lows for the month before a violent recovery of $10.00 off the lows in the spot feeder cattle contract into the close, with feeders settling with gains for the session. Perceptions of declining box beef and feeder indexes triggered the lower morning action, with live cattle still maintaining a lower close for the eighth day in a row despite its recovery to settle above trendline support.
Yesterday’s feeder index was off $2.44 at $370.75, while box beef had seen the afternoon choice cutout decline further than pre-noon thoughts and was off $4.57 at $370.75. Select was also lower by $2.80 at $363.09. The choice value has dropped almost $20 since ringing the bell at 400 again earlier this week, indicating that 260 is certainly the high watermark for the cattle trade, and it’s a matter of how much box beef declines this year after July 4 into late August. Seasonally, box beef values bottom out in late August, ahead of school-season beef purchases.
After closing lower for eight sessions in a row, one could guess we may get a steadier, better close today, while August feeder cattle are on the radar to see if they can close above 364. Battle lines are now drawn with yesterday’s volatile action and extreme discounts, as the June lows for August cattle near 234 need to be the low side of expectations for the summer decline, which would currently reflect a $20 drop. The question is, how much of the wall of worry can August live cattle recover if box beef prices continue to soften as anticipated by the board?
September feeder cattle will soon become a spot contract, and near-term support is also defined as just under 350. The seasonality of feeder cattle should still allow for the discount of August feeder cattle to cash to recover; the question is what corn will have to say from its recent low on June 30 to what it may try to produce into mid-month.
Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk
Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221