Soybeans find a turnaround-Tuesday, and wheat continues to recover.
April 14, 2026
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all moved higher in overnight trading, helped more by the absence of new negative developments than by any major bullish catalyst. Still, the upside was restrained. Weakness in the energy markets is capping enthusiasm across the ag space, and the rapid pace of fieldwork is doing the same. Soybean planting in the US is off to an exceptionally fast start, with growers in many areas choosing beans ahead of corn. Corn planting is also running ahead of last year, and the trade is paying close attention to whether elevated input costs ultimately shift acreage decisions.
Some rain is pushing across the northern Corn Belt this morning, but not in locations where it should meaningfully disrupt progress. For now, the forecast does not justify adding much of a weather premium to futures (except for wheat).
What is starting to matter more is geopolitical risk. Overnight, Ukraine targeted PhosAgro’s facility in Cherepovets, striking one of Russia’s largest fertilizer producers. The company produces roughly 11 to 12 million tonnes annually, with about a quarter tied to nitrogen products and the rest to phosphates. The attack is another reminder that Ukraine continues to hit Russian energy and petrochemical assets, even as broader market attention remains fixed on tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. That contrast is notable. Four years ago, wheat surged to $13 on fears the Black Sea region could be sidelined as a supplier of key food commodities. Now, with strikes occurring almost daily, the grain trade has become largely desensitized. The open question is how long that lasts.
Later today, the market will turn to the NOPA crush report, where expectations center on soybean processing near 230 million bushels. If realized, that would mark a record March crush. Traders are also looking for a modest increase in bean oil inventories. Yesterday’s winter wheat crop conditions score dropped another 1% out of the good/excellent category, now at 34%.
Feeder cattle kept pushing higher again yesterday and continue to show solid strength. Live cattle, on the other hand, ran into a ceiling. The June contract tested the 249-250 area but couldn’t break through and drifted lower into the close. Cash fundamentals are still doing most of the heavy lifting. Prices in the cash market remain at record levels, which is keeping overall sentiment supported. At the same time, last week’s dip in boxed beef put some pressure on packer margins. There was a bit of improvement to start this week, though, with Choice up $1.02 and Select gaining $2.30, which helps steady things somewhat.
One thing that still is not getting much attention is energy risk. Ongoing tensions involving Iran and the potential for higher fuel and input costs haven’t yet worked their way into cattle prices (except for the Black Swan March hard break that found buying since the first the month). For now, the market seems content to ignore it. Trade volume last week was light, with negotiated sales just over 34,000 head, the second lowest weekly total since January 2024. With the average price around 248, early-week asking prices are already coming in closer to 250, indicating sellers are still in control. As for futures, it feels like live cattle may be taking a breather after testing resistance, while feeder cattle continue to grind higher. The question now is whether feeders can keep that momentum going or if they finally start to level off.
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