SDA Stocks and Acreage data out at 11:00 CST today
March 31, 2026
This morning’s grain trade has wheat firmer, on again lower crop ratings due to the dryness in the Western HRW wheat belt, while soybean oil provided support for the soybean trade. Since the trade never goes naked one position or the other, corn becomes the sell side of the spread as we head into today’s all-important stocks and acreage data at 11:00 CST. It would not be a surprise to see the USDA put corn acreage a bit higher than the average guess and soybeans lower, given that the vast majority of farmers had already mailed in their acreage responses by early March before the impact of the war was felt.
Dryness across the Plains is becoming a bigger story for U.S. wheat, and conditions in Oklahoma are offering a clear example of how stressed the crop has become. Some fields are reportedly heading at only about three inches tall, and there is growing talk that parts of the crop are now in such poor shape they may no longer be worth grazing. That matters beyond wheat alone. If pasture and graze-out options shrink, feed demand could climb above what the market is currently penciling in, which would tighten the outlook for feed grains while also putting more pressure on cattle margins.
At the same time, elevated corn prices are not doing as much damage to ethanol economics as traders might normally expect. Rising energy prices are lifting the value of renewable fuels enough to keep plant returns attractive, with ethanol margins running near 40 cents per gallon. The same energy-driven support is helping soybean processors as crush economics improve alongside those stronger energy values.
The broader economy, however, is not getting the same boost. Higher energy costs are feeding directly into inflation, pushing the global rate above 4%. That is a sharp move from December, when inflation was running at roughly half that pace.
Soybeans are finding a firmer tone early today, drawing support from strength across energy markets and emerging concerns about the pace of shipments out of Brazil. With energy prices elevated, the value of soybean oil continues to underpin the broader complex, helping stabilize prices.
At the same time, attention is shifting to South America, where export flows from Brazil appear to be losing momentum. There is growing sentiment among analysts that March shipment totals may come in below earlier projections. If that proves accurate, it could redirect a portion of near-term demand back toward the United States, offering additional support to the market.
Another strong performance in the cattle trade yesterday, with June cattle closing right into heavy resistance at 240, with May feeder cattle challenging resistance in the 363-364 range before retreating slightly into the settlement. The cash feeder index rose $2.14 to $365.12. Box beef was also higher, with choice gaining $1.3 and select gaining almost the same by $1.14.
Outside markets are again friendly towards the cattle trade, but the market has quickly become overbought following the three-day surge. June cattle should find support in the short term on dips back to near 238, while May feeder cattle have surged considerably, with major support at 353-354. The technicals in the cattle trade have turned positive, but corrective action would not be a surprise from these levels.
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