Pres. Trump renews strikes against Iranian strategic targets in retaliation for Iran’s missile attacks on civilian ships.

July 8, 2026

Grain Overview

A nervous grain trade started mixed last night but slowly gained overnight. At around 3:00 a.m. CT, Pres. Trump, who is in Turkey, made statements that the Iranian cease-fire was likely over while the US was conducting extensive strategic attacks, much heavier than those of 10 days ago. This boosted crude oil back into the 74.00 range, lifting grains, with corn challenging its 200-day MA and the 50% retracement just above 465, while November soybeans pushed over 1200.

More rumors are circling that China has been buying US beans, and that is providing underlying support to beans while the threatening Central US weather pattern has index funds buying. Soybean oil led the overnight strength in beans, while soybean meal relaxed after its recent strong recovery from the 300 level. Crush margins remain strong. The rumor is that Chinese buying is for another 5-7 cargoes of new-crop purchases. The buyer has been caught; China’s government division, COFCO, is buying for its soybean reserves. As soon as we hear that China has lowered its 10% import duty, private firms can start buying. It’s anticipated we may see this on Friday, adding to volatility.