Overnight grain trade lacked Turnaround-Tuesday interest.
July 28, 2026
Grain Overview
Grain markets are mixed this morning as corn attempts to stabilize following Monday’s sharp selloff, while wheat and soybeans remain under pressure. Yesterday’s USDA crop ratings were considerably more supportive than expected, with the corn crop dropping 6 percentage points in the Good to Excellent category while the Poor to Very Poor rating increased by 3 percentage points. Spring wheat conditions also declined as hot, dry weather continues to stress crops across key production areas.
Soybean ratings slipped as well, but the market’s response has been more subdued. With first notice day for August futures approaching this Friday and crop development running ahead of normal, traders are beginning to factor in the possibility of an earlier-than-average harvest. This has soybeans on a gap-filling mission, working toward last week’s 1203-1207 gap.
Overnight trade has favored corn, while wheat and soybeans continue to struggle. Kansas City wheat has made several attempts to recover but has repeatedly encountered selling interest, limiting upside momentum despite the supportive crop conditions. What cannot be ignored are the regional problems shown in yesterday afternoon’s condition report. South Dakota, North Dakota, and Kansas all have roughly 20% of their corn crop rated Poor to Very Poor. Consider that even the top-producing state, Illinois, has 13% of its crop in the Poor to Very Poor category. Those kinds of ratings do not produce trendline yields. The grain trade will eventually begin working with a yield below 180 BPA if rains forecast for this weekend and early next week fail to materialize across the Western Corn Belt.
The Federal Reserve begins its meeting today and will announce its interest rate decision Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. CT. For now, the expectation is that rates will remain unchanged, with the Fed maintaining a tightening bias but choosing to remain on hold.
The grain trade is dealing with end-of-the-month liquidation after upward momentum was cracked late last week in corn and wheat, with soybeans suffering the most yesterday after outperforming all of last week. World grain supplies continue to tighten, Europe’s corn crop has become a disaster, and there is hope that Pres. Zelensky’s meeting with Pres. Trump this week might find a way to loosen the constricted grain movement in the Black Sea region.
Once we get through the next few days, we will likely see a renewed willingness to own grain. The last half of July has historically been a bearish seasonal period, with grain bins being swept out ahead of harvest. Last week’s rally almost made that seasonal look obsolete. We remain friendly toward grain prices once this corrective phase runs its course.
Cattle Overview
As expected, live and feeder cattle tumbled sharply yesterday following the weekend announcement from the USDA that the US border will slowly reopen to Mexican feeder cattle after August 24. October feeder cattle, and the deferred 2027 contracts, all closed down the $10.75 limit, with expanded limits anticipated today. The front-month feeder cattle contract did not close limit down, indicating that nearby price expectations are close to being fully factored into the market.
Lost in all the bearishness is the livestock loss that occurred due to last week’s extreme heat across the Central US in feedlots. If those losses are significant enough to affect available supplies, they should eventually show up in boxed beef values, assuming beef imports cannot make up the difference.
Spot October live cattle are currently trying to forge support in the 217-218 range. Technical measured-move theory would suggest major support comes into play in the 213-215 area, which should help arrest the decline in live cattle.
September feeder cattle also closed at a new breakdown low but did not settle limit down alongside August, which failed to pin itself against the expanded limit. That indicates a willingness by the market to begin finding support in this area.
Deferred feeder cattle options were indicating a lower opening today of $1.00-2.00 before active trading builds volume. Last fall’s low in the feeder cattle market was 299.50. Until all the kinks are worked out and the market gains confidence that additional ports can safely reopen to Mexican feeder cattle, the deferred contracts should find support in the low 300-310 price range.
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