Late-week bearish grain sellers get turned on their head overnight.

May 18, 2026

The grain trade is reacting to the foolishness they pursued last Thursday-Friday, as I explained the trade always throws the baby out with the bathwater and goes into liquidation mode when it does get what it’s wants. Sharp reversals were seen overnight with soybeans, corn, and wheat all gapping double-digit prices higher. China will be buying not only the agreed-upon 25 MMT of soybeans over the next three years, but also corn, wheat, and some beef and pork.

This renew China interest in US grains is occurring as we see potential production declines in the safrinha corn crop, with large areas of dryness resulting in irreversible losses. High expectations for a sizable new-crop Brazilian corn are being scaled back. You wouldn’t know this, but some weather observers contend that things are okay. Still, not only is Brazil’s corn crop getting smaller, but there is a need for more domestic feed and fuel.