May 13, 2026
Overnight trading ended mix, but the grain trade was all higher in the early morning hours of today, with Kansas July wheat tagging 750 before retreating a dime from gains of just over $0.20 last night. Last night’s high took out the May 2024 high of 746.2 before retreating. Ultimately a run in KC wheat could achieve something in the 775-790 range.
Yesterday’s WASDE delivered plenty for the market to digest. The broad takeaway is that old-crop inventories remain comfortable, while new-crop balance sheets came in tighter than expected. The biggest surprise was in the global grain outlook. USDA’s 2026/27 world corn supply landed 11 mmt below the average trade estimate, extending a notable tightening trend. Compared with 2023/24, global corn supplies are now down 36.5 mmt, a decline large enough that the market is beginning to pay attention. Wheat is facing a similar squeeze, with world supplies projected to contract meaningfully. Soybean stocks are also moving lower, though the tightening is less aggressive than in corn and wheat.
