It is WASDE crop report day today at 11:00 a.m. CT. Will the USDA acknowledge wheat production losses?
May 12, 2026
It is WASDE crop report day today, and grain futures are pressing higher. Kansas City wheat takes the lead to the upside, as the overall wheat condition report came in 4% lower in the good-to-excellent category than the average trade guess. The Kansas wheat crop is further degrading, as 4% was again removed from the good/excellent category, leaving very little there, and the poor/very poor category increased 7%. The frost damage is becoming apparent. The Crop Quality wheat tour gets underway this week and will likely see it in Western and Northern Kansas.
Energy values picked up again overnight, with the spot June crude all contract back over 101, as Iran had ”Zelinskied” the current peace deal, and the White House said that Iran is likely going to see further influence from the US military with the cease-fire likely ending. With the lack of progress in opening the Straits of Hormuz, global energy supplies are starting to tighten, as what were seen as bountiful stocks at the beginning of the year are being drawn down. Jet fuel in Europe is apparently becoming very short, resulting in more flights being canceled. Fertilizer will become a risk to India, Australia, and Brazil’s upcoming wheat production.
China is expected to again rotate stocks and auction off soybeans, giving it room to replace them with soybeans from the US. US soybean store better than South American beans due to their lower oil content. Pres. Trump is on track to leave on Wednesday for his meeting with Pres. Xi on Thursday and Friday. The corn and soybean trade is rising on hopes that a deal can be struck that brings China back in, picks up more old-crop stocks, and adheres to its promise to buy 25 MMTs of new-crop stocks over the next two years, and stays in play.
Today at 11:00 a.m. CT is the WASDE report, with new crop corn carryout placed at 1,904 Bil Bu, soybeans at 344 Mil Bu, and wheat at 818 Mil Bu. Wheat production numbers will be suspect, as the USDA does not have boots on the ground for this. It’ll be more armchair guessing, which is always much higher than reality.
Live cattle futures tumbled hard yesterday when it was reported that Pres. Trump was going to remove all tariffs on beef exports from countries that get put at 25% once they had reached their quotas. This created a sharp reversal of fortune from strength earlier in the session, but a recovery was seen into the close after deep losses. The Wall Street Journal later reported yesterday that Trump is delaying the signing of such an order to allow more imports amid pushback from many Livestock memberships.
The cash feeder index yesterday was higher by $0.80 at $374.83. Live sales last week of 256-258 in all regions are expected to attain the same cash market this week. Yesterday, choice cutout values slipped $0.72, and select was down $2.04. Inventory for the Memorial Day holiday is being procured currently, and after that, the last big hurrah to feature is Father’s Day.
Yesterday’s technical damage was a bit mitigated towards the close as both June live cattle and August feeders closed above Friday’s lows after violating them earlier in the session. The market is getting concerned about higher prices and further administrative action. Yesterday may have been a warning shot, but it may still see some form of implementation, similar to October’s action.
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