Iran has until 7:00 p.m. CDST to accept the cease-fire terms.

April 7, 2026

The grain trade is a bit softer this morning, despite crude oil trading near 115, as the US waits for Iran’s response to a truce, which has a 7:00 CST p.m. deadline. The trade also awaits estimates for Thursday’s WASDE crop report, but for this date, it’s recent April on a scale of 1 to 10, usually about a 4 in terms of excitement. Not expecting any changes on corn or soybean belt sheets other than a slight 8 Mil Bu reduction in wheat ending stocks. Meanwhile, global numbers are forecast to also be little changed.

The wheat crop condition reports showed another drop in ratings, one of the poorest starts for wheat in five years. But selling pressure developed immediately after Monday night’s opening due to the wet weather forecast for later this week. This forecast needs to verify, or we will end up with a high-end close on the wheat trade this coming Friday for prices.

Grain movement remains slow, while basis levels are firming as farmers focus on spring fieldwork. This is now coming as demand for renewable fuel starts to increase. Ethanol margins are holding at $0.40 a gallon, and soybean crush is at a record $2.99/Bu. Also, we saw strong export loadings in yesterday’s data, indicating that the grain we are marking as export sales is leaving the country, alleviating fears of cancellations.

Cattle futures had another sharply higher session yesterday, but relaxed towards the close. Higher settlements were still maintained. The cash feeder index drifted yesterday, off $2.26 to $364.55. This means we now have futures contracts through the summer and early fall above the index.

Crude oil is sharply higher this morning as stock indexes retreat, but this is more of the same old same old, and it might offer a softer start to the cattle futures board. The question is, will they retreat much more than a lower opening? A correction would be justified on the recent strength, so weakness today that is not substantial would be considered part of the healthy strengthening of the recent uptrend.

Major resistance for June cattle exists at last fall’s cash high near $250, with May feeder cattle having resistance at 373-374 and then last fall’s contract high just above 383. Elevated energy prices are spurring talk of a recession if they continue through the summer, and the effects that it has spreading throughout the economy, but it seems the protein market is not too worried about it.

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