Independence Day weekend brings a sharp change in attitudes on grain prices.

July 6, 2026

Grain Overview

Sunday night’s firm start turned into a sharply higher run for the grain trade during the overnight session, as weather forecasts are no longer conducive to achieving a national corn yield of 183 BPA. Even soybean yield potential is beginning to come into question. There are growing indications that a large, intense, and perhaps record-breaking mid-atmospheric high-pressure system, commonly referred to as a heat dome, will develop somewhere between the Rockies and Central Plains by mid-July. This could bring a widespread and severe heat wave across much of the United States.

Last week’s heat stressed corn and soybeans in areas that missed rainfall, while other regions continued to receive flooding rains. One thing becoming increasingly apparent in this year’s crop is the greater variability than in recent years. That raises additional doubt about the size of the US crop as we head into Friday’s July WASDE report. While July is often considered a quieter month for USDA reports, this release will incorporate the quarterly Stocks and Acreage updates, making it more meaningful than a typical July report.