Here comes turnaround Tuesday. Can it hold through the day session?
February 10, 2026
Turnaround Tuesday showed up on time early this morning, as the grain trade has a firm footing heading into today’s WASDE crop report out at 11:00 a.m. CT. Domestic carryout numbers look to be mostly unchanged, but it’s the world balance sheet numbers that are to be watched. In China, the USDA lowered its corn crop estimate two weeks ago, and this should be reflected in today’s world balance numbers.
We should also see updated trade estimates that show a meaningful tightening of the Black Sea wheat balance sheet. Ukraine’s 2025 26 export outlook has been reduced to 40.48 million metric tons, down sharply from the prior estimate of 45.18 million. As a result, Ukraine’s carryout has been cut to just 6.8 million metric tons versus the previous 11.5 million, underscoring how much less supply is available to the export market. Wheat exports out of Ukraine are now projected at 14.5 million metric tons, reinforcing the notion that exportable surplus is shrinking faster than expected.
Meanwhile, US export performance remains solid. Year to date shipments total 636.6 million bushels, running 100 million bushels ahead of last year’s pace. This strength is notable given recent stabilization in Russian export values, which had previously been a major source of competitive pressure. China returns from its New Year Holiday on February 17, so the market anticipates that this is when Chinese purchases could begin, following the recent announcement of 8 MMTs to be purchased. Of course, the Bears that were wrong last fall continue to discuss today how the logistics do not work out for China. It is plausible that logistics will not be beneficial to Brazil. Remember, it’s nothing for China to spend $300 million extra on 8 MMTs of beans. Many bearers say it is too expensive, but they will do it to keep Trump happy and avoid being hit with $90 billion in tariffs.
Weather is emerging as an additional complicating factor. Bitter cold across the Black Sea region is disrupting logistics, with rivers and lakes freezing and slowing grain movement. These transportation challenges come at a time when feed demand remains elevated, limiting downside risk and keeping global wheat balances tighter than headline production numbers might suggest. Meanwhile, entering the sixth week of crop production, rainfall coverage in Argentina remains limited. It is truly feast or famine for large areas.
Cattle futures opened sharply higher on Monday, in recovery of the late-week selloff and strong cash performance that also occurred on Friday. After the opening, the trade price deflated throughout the session as media outlets like FOX Business News reported on beef imports from Argentina every hour, while many on Twitter, misunderstanding it, said it was a death knell for the market. To understand what it actually was, as I said in yesterday’s newsletter, is that 100 MMTs of beef from Argentina is not as big as it sounds. It’s essentially equal to two full harvest days in the US. Spread that over 12 months and it starts to become much less than all the paranoia about it. Still, the conversation about this and the reality of rising imports take the bloom off the market. The fear in the marketplace moving forward is that another Black Swan event could occur, as February and March are known for such events.
Box beef yesterday slipped with choice down $1.57, while select picked up $0.82. Feedlots this week will hold prices steady to help offset falling carcass weights. Negotiated volume last week was just 62,000 head, down 20,000 from the prior week. On the charts, again, the line in the sand on a closing basis for April cattle is 232, with feeder cattle having support at 363, but a line in the sand is a close below 360. The market has become congestive now, as attempts to burst through 240 for April live cattle and 370 for March feeder cattle on a closing basis have become a bit of a glass ceiling now.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services
