Hello to Turnaround-Tuesday. Monday’s gains are getting checked.
July 21, 2026
Grain Overview
After a mixed overnight start, the grain trade softened as Monday’s gains were partially retraced. Crop ratings came in slightly better than expected, with corn declining just 1% and soybeans improving 1% in the good to excellent category. Even a 5% drop in the spring wheat ratings failed to generate much support for Minneapolis wheat. For now, the market has chosen to pause despite continued restrictions on grain movement through the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, while fighting across the Black Sea region remains intense.
Daily soybean flash sales continue to favor China, with additional rumors that Chinese buyers were active again over the past 24 hours. That buying has helped push soybeans to new contract highs. At the same time, Argentina is reportedly importing soybeans from Paraguay to maintain crushing operations, raising further questions about the size of its own soybean crop. Index funds have continued adding to long soybean and soybean product positions, although those positions are becoming short-term extended.
Soybeans drifted lower overnight despite September crude oil pushing to fresh recovery highs this morning, briefly challenging the $84.00 area, up roughly $1.50. Concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to support energy prices, while global petroleum inventories remain historically tight. If additional disruptions to oil or fertilizer shipments develop, energy markets could remain an important source of underlying support for the grain complex.
Across the Black Sea, Russia and Ukraine continue targeting each other’s port and logistics infrastructure, while Russia maintains restrictions on vessel traffic through the Sea of Azov. Marine insurance costs have risen sharply, making Black Sea shipments increasingly expensive and, in some cases, difficult to insure. As a result, importers are beginning to diversify purchases toward suppliers where execution risk is lower. Under those conditions, significant breaks in wheat and corn prices are likely to attract buyers rather than encourage additional selling.
From now through early August, the grain market enters one of its most bearish seasonal periods. Historically, this is when post Fourth of July weather rallies begin to flatten as old crop inventories are cleaned out ahead of harvest. Normally, the trade steps back and allows new crop supplies to come to the market. This year, however, tightening world balance sheets and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could mute that seasonal weakness or simply produce a more volatile sideways market.
Weather forecasts show temperatures moderating later this week before heat returns during August. That is a notable difference from last year, when June and July were generally cooler with more favorable moisture across much of the Corn Belt. Achieving USDA’s 183 BPA trendline dot blot corn yield becomes increasingly difficult under those conditions, especially with current new crop carryout projected near 1.79 Bil Bu and likely to continue tightening if yields slip.
Soil moisture across the Plains and western Midwest continues to decline because of limited widespread rainfall, while above normal temperatures persist. It will also become increasingly difficult for USDA to maintain its 53 BPA soybean yield estimate as well, which matches last year’s record yield achieved under much more favorable growing conditions.
Cattle Overview
Live and feeder cattle futures opened mixed yesterday before quickly recovering from extremely oversold conditions after more than three weeks of nearly relentless daily losses. An early improvement in boxed beef values helped spark buying interest, with gains accelerating after the afternoon report showed Choice boxed beef up $3.29 while Select added $0.16. October live cattle also found support after testing the exact 50% Fibonacci retracement measured from the November low to this spring’s contract high.
Even though the cash feeder index fell sharply, losing $4.32 to $359.71, August feeder cattle held the major 344 to 349 support zone, an area defined by long term trendline and moving average support built during the five year bull market. That support produced a sharp reversal higher, triggering profit taking on existing hedges against cash sales while also encouraging index funds to ease up on their liquidation.
October live cattle now face initial resistance at the June low near 226, the level that was broken last week, with more significant resistance developing near 230. Meanwhile, September feeder cattle, now the lead contract on the continuation chart, face initial resistance between 348.50-349.00, followed by more substantial resistance in the 352-353 area.
This Friday at 2:00 p.m. CT, following the market close, USDA will release the July Cattle on Feed report, which could provide the next major catalyst for the cattle market.
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