Grains softened overnight, with wheat catching a bid. Exports look to rise with the recent grain price decline.

June 4, 2026

Grain Overview

Further weakness was seen in the grain trade overnight, although the selling was not as severe as in previous sessions. Even wheat futures managed to turn positive after losing another dime during the overnight trade. The complete liquidation flush from the highs posted following the Chinese summit may be nearing an end, given the extreme nature of the decline and the key chart objectives that have now been achieved in both corn and wheat. Soybeans remain more questionable until we actually see evidence of Chinese tariff reductions.

As noted in yesterday’s commentary, China appears to have played this situation well. They understood that by offering no meaningful follow-through after the May 15 Summit, liquidation pressure would begin to build. Index funds were never likely to wait indefinitely, especially with the prospect of a two-month pause in Chinese buying following the summit. That created the conditions for an aggressive round of liquidation, particularly as weather across most of the Midwest has started the growing season on a generally favorable note.

Stability should arrive in pricing this week, as the market will likely see increasing demand from other countries that have been buying from the US, well above the pace needed to meet the USDA’s current dot plots. If anything, we will probably see increased demand now (can anyone say Kmart Blue Light Special), and the USDA will be further behind on adjustments to carryouts by the time we get to September. This is similar to last year, and the year before, etc., etc.

It’s early in the crop year, and it’s amazing how, getting two weeks down the road, heat is seen on the maps, which is typical when you get close to July, ^{and given the nature of the grain markets, a quick knee-jerk reaction to just a scare can create a bounce on December corn back into the 470 range.}

There’s no way the Chinese will not follow through on their buying program (and then take the wrath of Trump), which means grain markets will again be caught in volatility, as the trade viciously reverses and heads higher on renewed demand. It’s just a matter of time, so hang onto your hat, volatility is not leaving.

Cattle Overview

Yesterday’s announcement that a three-week-old calf found in South Texas had a possible New World Screwworm infection was confirmed, and headlines will likely cause a sharper lower-to-limit-down price reaction this morning. Given the already extreme discounts and the fears the market was carrying, it’s possible that trade will not remain at the new limit-down price of 10.75. The protocols the USDA has put into place are so aggressive that we will likely not see any spreading of this screwworm. Still, it’s the headlines and the fear and thought that consumer demand might be affected if it’s carried widely.

There was some cash trade yesterday afternoon, with feedlots taking bids steady with last week. Dressed sales in the north were lower at $405, while southern live sales were off $1.00 at $256. The screwworm will be contained; the question is, can the headlines be contained so that they don’t affect consumer demand? With headlines, needs to come education that this does not affect the consumer in any way. The beef checkoff needs to kick in heavily right now to educate consumers if needed.

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