Grains softened overnight despite friendly data this morning from CONAB on their corn and soybean production.
July 14, 2026
Grain Overview
This morning’s grain trade continues the reversal from yesterday morning’s strength, as Turnaround Tuesday continues to bleed away the gains generated by this week’s heat stress concerns. Yesterday afternoon’s crop ratings showed corn, soybeans, and spring wheat all improving by 1% in their good to excellent categories. Spring wheat is still showing signs of stress this week, but conditions are expected to stabilize next week as temperatures moderate. The market remains more focused on whether the current soil moisture profile can sustain the crop through this period of heat and less than ideal pollination conditions across the Western Corn Belt.
The US dollar is lower by $0.50 this morning after the CPI report showed year over year super core inflation at 3.1%, down from the previous reading of 3.67%. Headline CPI came in at 3.5%, below expectations of 3.8% and down from the previous 4.2%. That has reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month, with the US Dollar Index trading back near 100.50 this morning.
The Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait continue to experience restricted grain movement, a situation that could persist for weeks. Harvest has not yet fully reached the export terminals, creating the potential for a backlog of grain vessels. Russia is now working to develop alternative logistics using truck and rail transportation, although that will increase costs and be made more difficult by tightening gasoline and diesel supplies. Those challenges are contributing to higher FOB values for Russian 12.5% wheat, with early fall shipments currently quoted around $238 to $240 per metric ton out of Novorossiysk. The longer these disruptions continue, the greater the concern becomes that Russia could retaliate by targeting Ukraine’s key grain export facilities in Odessa.
Brazil released updated production estimates this morning through CONAB, and the numbers were viewed as modestly friendly. Soybean production was left unchanged at 180.3 MMTs, despite expectations for an increase of roughly 500,000 metric tons. Corn production was reduced to 139.2 MMTs from last month’s estimate of 140.5 MMTs. While the revisions were relatively small, they did provide row crops with a modest bounce from the overnight lows.
Weather remains stressful this week across the Upper Midwest and Plains, with temperatures expected to reach the 90s and lower 100s before moderating into the mid 80s to mid 90s next week. Soil moisture continues to decline, placing additional stress on blooming soybeans and pollinating corn as flash drought conditions begin developing across the Dakotas and portions of the Western Midwest. That type of weather is unlikely to support a national corn yield of 183 BPA.
Keep in mind that the 10 year average US corn yield is 176 BPA. The trendline projections reaching 183 BPA reflect decades of improvements in genetics and production technology on a dot plot. If national yields slip into the 180 to 181 BPA range while demand remains firm, aside from a typical seasonal slowdown into August, corn prices could once again work back toward the 490 to 500 range. For now, it appears wheat established an early harvest low, while corn likely posted its seasonal low on June 30.
Cattle Overview
Live cattle continue to disappoint, with yesterday’s early morning strength fading as the session progresses. A sharp drop of more than $7.00 in the Choice boxed beef cutout during the afternoon likely put a cooler on the trade and reinforced the market’s negative tone. Feeder cattle also failed to sustain their early morning rally despite the cash feeder index rising $2.10 to $372.52. The cash live cattle trade is still expected to soften later this week.
Record large beef imports continue to pressure the market, while wholesale beef demand has now been weakening for eight consecutive weeks. Last week’s data showed wholesale beef demand running 8.7% below year ago levels.
On the charts, August live cattle need to hold 234 on a closing basis today, even if the market posts a 12th consecutive lower close. Initial resistance is now firmly established at the 40 day moving average, which continues to drift lower and currently sits just above 241.
Meanwhile, August feeder cattle face substantial resistance at the 20 day moving average on the continuation chart, currently near 364, which now defines the line between a bullish and bearish trend. Short term resistance was established yesterday in the 358.50 to 359.50 area, while major long term support remains between 344 and 349. Everything in between is a pinball machine.
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