Grains softened considerably with no announcement yet on a US/Chinese Ag deal.
May 14, 2026
The grain markets softened overnight, with losses accelerating early this morning after no comments were made about agricultural trade in the initial meetings between the US and China overnight. With high open interest loaded up and high expectations, this triggered profit-taking that fed on itself in the morning. Volatility may persist, as agricultural announcements could occur later this evening, which will be morning in China when more details could be released. But in the meantime, everybody’s trying to get out of long positions, which they had hoped to do on a price spike.
Export sales were also off considerably this week, with corn well under 1 MMT, given the pace corn has been at, a seasonal slowdown is not a surprise. Meanwhile, on Chinese trade, as is typical, chaos over expectations can still result in price bursts. Reality is that the market length is aging and entering a seasonality, where, if there is no crop threat, the trade gets into sell mode. Algo reading: computer trading accelerates movements that would typically take three days and manifests in one session. Look for more volatility ahead.
The House has approved legislation for year-round use of E-15, which is now headed to the Senate, where many expect this package could fail. On Friday, the NOPA will report another likely record crush at 11:00 a.m. CST.
Yesterday’s optimism ahead of the Chinese/US summit price strength may have created a monthly high, which will be marked on May 13. Kansas wheat hit 750; December corn made a new high at 506.2, with spot soybeans trading at 1235 and November at 1214. Price rallies from any positive Chinese trade announcements will have to be extremely positive to now get present prices to recover past these watermarks. Position yourself to achieve increased new-crop sales.
Today’s relaxed pricing is still well above what the industry has hedged in the general media chatter. Most of the world out there has already hedged off new crop beans near 11, new crop corn under 480, and wheat, well, we are still considerably above levels that the industry said could not be surpassed. We will look for volatility from potential Thursday night announcements to fill sell targets. Our sales targets will be readjusted in an updated email and text.
It was another strong performance yesterday in live and feeder cattle markets, after a rough start initially for feeder cattle. A higher cash trade developed Tuesday afternoon at 260, which helped live cattle lead the charge. A trade in Nebraska on Wednesday afternoon at 265 will be seen as positive for this morning start.
Yesterday’s feeder index declined again by $0.51 at $373.86 and may drop further today as recent one-day numbers of 362 will tug it lower. We are seeing strong pricing across the Midwest this week, with cattle now over 260. Whether cash highs are occurring or not will be seen next week, as procurement for Memorial Day weekend is taking place this week. A typical cash slide from a second-quarter high into June is $6-8, and the June board is currently trying to measure it.
Barring outside/stories (like China not renewing importer licenses for beef, but then renewing them yesterday), the discounts will remain a positive feature for the futures markets. August feeder cattle need to be back above 363 by Friday’s close to keep a weekly reversal on the charts recurring. There is a strong war currently between cash reality and the Future’s market anticipation, with heavy index ownership liquidating.
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