Grains in full recovery mode of Tuesday’s losses.

April 9, 2026

Grains are all higher across the board this morning, with wheat taking the lead, as rain forecasts for the weekend are still there in the HRW wheat belt, but again, it looks like the West will not get what’s needed. There are reports of fields being so poor that they’re not even being grazed, and the rain will not benefit them at this stage.

Soybean oil is on the rebound, as crude oil heads back to near 100. Yesterday, only saw five ships exit the Strait of Hormuz: one oil tanker and the rest container ships. A typical number would be 100 per day. The odds of Iran keeping the truce for two weeks appear low. The Iranian mullahs are looking for a way to remain in power and hopefully wait out Pres. Trump for a more lenient President, similar to Obama and Biden, who did appeasement rather than take away any possibility of utilizing nuclear fuel in Iran.

Solid domestic demand and another export sales report this morning, well over the needed 1 MMTs of weekly sales to meet the USDA’s planned export schedule, showing that they will need to increase demand numbers in the future. The April WASDE report is out today at 11:00 a.m. with only minor changes in the numbers compared to last month. It would be the May WASDE report that sets fresh yield expectations for the new crop.

The Strait of Hormuz is far from ever functioning properly, and Iran’s unwillingness to abide by the cease-fire terms will likely blow this thing up after VP Vance meets in Istanbul over the weekend with Iranian counterparts. At this point in time, we are not weeks, but probably months, away from the Strait of Hormuz operating more normally. Right now, ships just want out with no plans of ever reentering again until this war is settled and Iran has no power over the waterway. Fertilizer availability to Australia and India will be reduced for the upcoming rice and wheat crops, with wheat acreage in Brazil likely to be affected as well. Wheat has been a very hated crop on price over the last several years, due to its ability to have seen carryouts grow. That may be ending. The best way to put it is that the pantries may be full, but the supermarkets will soon run low on supplies to restock them.

Cattle futures closed higher yesterday, but were well off opening-session highs. Live cattle were mixed compared to deferred cattle futures higher, while feeder cattle did close higher, but you would’ve never known that there was a collapse in oil prices, given the sluggish manner that feeder cattle had shown for a rebound from Monday’s losses. Yesterday, boxed beef tumbled again, with choice off $3, and select giving up $4, and is still premium to the choice boxed beef. The feeder index was almost unchanged, off four cents on Wednesday, at $364.55. For the first time in a while, feeder cattle futures are more optimistic than the current cash market.

In yesterday’s euphoria, June cattle respected resistance at 248 while the near-term support is at 241. Feeder cattle may have resistance at the continuation high created by the March contract near 373, which was challenged on Monday but not even looked at yesterday. Support is initially at 365.50-366, and if that were to give way, then there is more significant support at 359-360 (the 21-day MA on the May contract).

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