Grains give up overnight strength despite oil staying over $100/barrel.

March 30, 2026

It was another Sunday night when crude oil opened higher with the grains in tow, while equities opened lower. Then we would normally see a reversal. This time, the oil did not reverse, but the grains did turn lower while equities turned higher. This leaves grains in a quandary as they await the second-most important crop report of the year, due out in 27 hours.

Markets are split between the positioning from the USDA report and rising geopolitical tensions tied to the US–Iran conflict. Despite official claims that the situation is under control, continued troop deployments and new Houthi missile activity suggest risks are still building. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain limited, with few vessels allowed to pass, many of which are unwilling to return, highlighting ongoing security concerns. Gasoline prices have eased slightly in some areas but remain about $1 higher than a month ago, adding pressure on consumers and beginning to weigh on broader commodity demand.