Grains are mixed this morning after a sharply higher run overnight amid concerning weather models.

July 13, 2026

Grain Overview

Weather has once again become the dominant market driver, and forecasts are now calling for the type of heat many believed would not develop this summer. Record or near record temperatures are expected across portions of the Western United States, with the heat ridge expanding into the Western Corn Belt. If this forecast verifies, it could become a meaningful production threat. At this point, I would rate the weather risk at roughly 9 out of 10 for soybeans and 7 out of 10 for corn. Soybeans remain the more vulnerable crop, while corn enters this period in generally strong condition. Should temperatures moderate or scattered rainfall develop along the northern edge of the ridge, favorable conditions across the Eastern Corn Belt could help offset losses in western production. The next several days will be critical.

One lesson history has taught is that crop damage is often underestimated in its early stages. Analysts and weather experts frequently downplay stress until yield losses become undeniable. The 2020 growing season was a good example of when concerns were initially dismissed before the market ultimately recognized the impact of drought and the derecho on corn production. By the time the damage becomes obvious, the market has often already begun adjusting.