Grain trade disappointed with the lack of agricultural-specific sales to China.

May 15, 2026

The overnight grain trade saw a light bounce initially in anticipation of an agricultural package with China, but without an official number or specifics, the market softened again this morning, with losses across the board. Pres. Trump says China will buy lots of soybeans, billions of soybeans, but without specific numbers, and the ambiguity in the statement, the grain trade continues to see big liquidation from large spec open interest. The current flush is seeking new business.

At 11: a.m. today, we will receive the April NOPA, and we will likely see another record crush, along with a drawdown in oil stocks. The overnight price rally of the new spot contract July is near 100, up $3 died 00 barrel, yet it is having no effect on the bean trade other than creating a stable soybean oil price. The biggest problem with the grain trade today is the near-record open interest in fund participation, and a liquidation phase will run its course until a bid for a rebound in prices is found.